As the year comes to an end, how do we rate South Africa in 2025? In many quarters there is a tangible sense of progress. We are off the greylist and have seen three consecutive quarters of GDP growth.
Load-shedding has been banished and we have seen good progress with freight and logistics. There is a new visa system for skilled migrants and tourists, and international tourist arrivals are up nearly 20%.
We hosted a successful G20 despite bizarre attempts to derail the leadership summit. The GNU has held and allowed for stability in the government. The JSE is up, the rand is strong and we have grown our export revenues in difficult circumstances. Our sports teams have excelled and we are preparing to host a number of global sporting events.
Some of this is just luck. Gold and platinum prices have been strong and rainfall patterns have been good. But much of it can be attributed to a reform programme that is beginning to improve the country’s trajectory.
But there is an elephant in the room, one that competes for space with the presidency’s reform programme and with the efforts of skilled and motivated public servants. It competes for air with the government-business partnership and with the efforts of civil society.
It squeezes businesses large and small, and encumbers the lives of households and individuals. That elephant is corruption. It continues to grow and innovate and has taken hold in the state in a way that might impress even the Guptas.
Corruption in South Africa has two main features. It is extensive and it is inexorably linked to state power. The Madlanga commission has given us insight into this. The hearings have shown how easy it is for a tenderpreneur to wield power over senior leaders. Other incidents — such as the murder of Mpho Mafole — have thrown light on the modus operandi of corruption and on the role it is playing in local government.
The playbook is simple. Establish a procurement line somewhere in the state linked to a group of people who can exert control over the procurement process. The service doesn’t have to be difficult to deliver and often doesn’t need to be delivered at all. Then agree to pay the officials a portion of the (inflated) revenue that you are paid to deliver the service.
Bigger contracts may require a larger number of allies and really big tenders may require the co-operation of a city manager or mayor or minister. If someone — such as Mafole or Babitha Deokaran — has the audacity to get in your way, remove that person by murdering them as they drive home.
What can be done? The first priority is for our society to become intolerant of corruption. In Italy it took decades to confront the Mafia. In South Africa we continue to see people in powerful roles despite having known records of corruption and other signs of tolerating corruption.
The second is to reform the procurement system, which is so easily managed by even slightly organised criminals. The third is to reduce the complexity and extent of red tape. Some of our regulatory systems create little value but provide myriad opportunities for dishonest officials and get in the way of people trying to make an honest living.
This year has been a year of progress. The reform process has begun to deliver and the economy has shown remarkable resilience. But these forces of progress are being squeezed by organised crime and its grip on many parts of the state. If we don’t confront this our hopes for inclusive growth will perish.
• Bethlehem is an economic development specialist and partner at Genesis Analytics. She has worked in the forestry, renewable energy, housing and property sectors as well as in local and national government. She writes in her personal capacity.
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.