South Africa is actively cultivating multiple trade relationships to reduce vulnerability to geopolitical shocks and build diversified alliances. For global investors this diversification is a positive signal that the country is expanding its options and creating new corridors of growth.
SA’s trade relationship with the US has entered turbulent waters. The recently introduced Agoa Extension and Bilateral Engagement Act has reignited fears that the country could be excluded from the benefits of Agoa. For South African exporters this means higher costs of doing business with the US, diminished competitiveness and an uncertainty that affects long-term planning.
Adding to the challenges is Maersk’s recent decision to exit the direct SA–US shipping route. This will result in longer transit times between the US and South Africa, higher logistics costs to reroute goods destined via Europe, and possible price gouging due to reduced competitiveness. This logistical uncertainty undermines investment in numerous sectors in SA that have relied on trade with the US.
Potential for growth in trade with China and the Middle East
While SA already has strong trade relationships with China and the Middle East, they are often described as undersold, as they are heavily weighted on raw material exports rather than diversified, value-added trade. Recent statistics and trade policy moves show both the scale of existing trade and the advantages of expanding it further.
According to Trading Economics, in 2024 SA exported $12.41bn worth of goods to China, mainly ores, slag and ash ($8.23bn), iron and steel ($1.39bn), and copper ($849m). Import figures from the South African Revenue Service in 2025 show that China accounted for 11.6% of SA’s exports and 22.8% of imports, making it the single largest source of imports for SA.
Earlier this year the South African Citrus Growers’ Association estimated that expanding exports to China and other markets could create 100,000 new jobs by 2032. At the 2025 G20 Summit in Johannesburg, SA and China pledged to expand co-operation in manufacturing, renewable energy and vehicle production, with China offering zero-tariff treatment for African exports.
SA also runs a trade deficit with the Middle East, importing more than it exports from the region and further highlighting the untapped potential for stronger trade ties with this region. Currently, the country’s exports to the Middle East remain limited compared to Asia and Europe, but sectors like agriculture (especially citrus and wine) and manufacturing are being positioned for expansion.
According to customs statistics from the SA Revenue Service, Saudi Arabia, for example, accounted for 3.4% of SA’s imports, mainly oil and petrochemicals, in 2025. There is scope for this relationship to grow — Saudi Arabia noted in its Vision 2030 Report that it will focus on manufacturing, mining and logistics as priority sectors for outward investment.
SA is a potential strategic entry point for an industrial base in Africa — both countries are also investing in port modernisation and dry ports. Saudi Arabia is also a major importer of agricultural products, which could be supplied by South Africa in future years.
There is also significant potential to increase trade between South Africa and the United Arab Emirates. According to the UAE ministry of economy, South Africa is now the UAE’s second‑largest non‑oil trade partner in Africa, with non‑oil trade between the countries reaching $8.5bn in 2024. Sectors where there is potential for growth include agriculture, logistics and infrastructure, renewable energy and manufacturing.
Strengthened China and Middle East trade dovetails with the potential of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) for the country because it positions SA as a continental gateway for investment and logistics.
If SA is to thrive in this shifting trade environment, it must seize opportunities beyond traditional trade corridors. One of the ways to do this is via implementing innovative and accessible trade finance opportunities between traders and smaller producers.
Also essential are methods to streamline dispute resolution to avoid lengthy court cases and expedite alternative dispute resolution for traders.
Global support for growing trade with Africa
Trade finance discussions at the G20 Summit in South Africa earlier this year focused on the need to lower the continent’s financing costs, strengthen debt relief, incentivise investment through the AfCFTA and enable climate-linked funding.
AfCFTA offers a powerful trade framework to deepen intra-African trade and investment, but only if systems are bedded down and border posts can be made seamless. This is where Chinese influence in the development of African logistics and trade is reshaping supply chains and infrastructure investment across the continent.
China has been investing heavily in transport and logistics infrastructure in Africa, indicating that the continent is an integral part of Beijing’s global trade strategy. Recent projects include the Belt & Road Initiative and Djibouti–Ethiopia railway and port expansions in Tanzania and Nigeria, for example.
These projects have assisted African countries to integrate into global supply chains, improve connectivity, reduce transport costs and ready themselves to benefit from AfCFTA.
While most of these projects are currently financed through Chinese state banks, there has been a shift from state-led investment in infrastructure to the encouragement of private sector participation (PSP) in projects like the building of container terminals, rail lines or dry ports.
The current South African PSP flagship is the participation of international Filipino terminal operator ICTSI in the Durban Container Terminal Pier 2. It is expected to take over all terminal operations early in 2026. In addition, South Africa is driving a new rail open access regime, which has recently seen 41 rail slots provisionally concessioned to 11 independent train operating companies.
The greater efficiencies expected from the PSP-led projects are also expected to further boost private sector investment in African trade. PSP-driven projects are more bankable, with predictable capital flows, making it easier for traders and smaller producers to access financing.
With private operators involved, contracts also often enable the operators to exclude government procurement red tape and also include expedited arbitration or alternative dispute resolution mechanisms.
Investors can capitalise on logistics opportunities in Africa by aligning early with PSP projects in rail and port spaces. There are also investment opportunities in the development of sub-Saharan inland terminals/dry ports as hubs for cargo consolidation and distribution, which will strengthen regional integration and reduce reliance on coastal routes.
For example, Tanzania and Democratic Republic of Congo signed a deal in 2025 to build cross‑border dry ports to ease congestion at seaports and streamline regional trade in both countries, with construction expected to be completed within 18 months.
New avenues of growth
The convergence of global trade tension, shipping disruptions and AfCFTA opportunities has called for proactive and adaptable trade strategies. Stakeholders across the continent are working together to diversify markets, modernise logistics and create better trade finance systems, in the process setting a new course for more resilient and competitive global supply chains.
• Pike is senior consultant at Bowmans.
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.