DESNÉ MASIE: After US action in Venezuela, all bets are off in our new geo-economic reality

I wondered over the weekend what I should write my first column of the year about. As he so often does, US president Donald Trump came to the rescue by capturing Venezuela’s president, Nicolás Maduro.

In a night-time raid more audacious than anything in a John Le Carré spy thriller, the US blindsided a world of global leaders who continue to fail to grasp that all bets are off in our new geo-economic reality, despite mounting evidence.

It feels as if we are sleepwalking into a new world order and are already on the back foot. This is a world where geo-economics is thinly veiled as geopolitics. By this I mean that what at first glance seems like a military action about power is actually a more calculated act of economic statecraft.

In this case the official narrative is that Maduro is corrupt and actively running a narco state that is causing illegal Venezuelan immigrants to flood the US. But some analysts are of the view that what is actually happening is an attempt to install a friendlier government that will give the US easier access to Venezuelan oil reserves, the world’s largest.

Questionable legitimacy

I will remain silent on the matter of whether Maduro is a baddie who deserves to be tried in the US, or even The Hague. I will not share if I view this development as being about oil or morality. However, I will say that there are many other leaders globally with questionable legitimacy where the US does not intervene.

But predicting whether statements from Trump will remain rhetoric alone is becoming more difficult. A few days before the military action in Venezuela the US carried out air strikes in northwestern Nigeria. This military action followed a statement by Trump about a month earlier that Nigeria is a “country of particular concern” due to alleged attacks on Christians by Islamic State militants there.

This is why Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen was moved to tell Trump in a media statement to stop threatening to seize the arctic island of Greenland after Trump repeated on Sunday, “We do need Greenland.”

Nato countries are in a state of consternation because the US actions in Venezuela, and often elsewhere, seem to be unilateral decisions that may embolden other state actors to also do what they want, when they want.

There could be worries for any country with whom the Trump government currently has beef. And I would include in that basket both Canada and South Africa.

Nato countries are in a state of consternation because the US actions in Venezuela, and often elsewhere, seem to be unilateral decisions that may embolden other state actors to also do what they want, when they want.

Even the US Republicans seem blindsided by Trump’s claim that the US will “run” Venezuela. Trump has also annoyed both Russia and China, which have condemned Maduro’s capture. The UK has denied any UK involvement in the Venezuela action, with Prime Minister Keir Starmer saying he wanted to “talk to Trump”. South Africa, for its part, has called for an urgent UN Security Council meeting.

Political instability and its fallouts of deglobalisation and fragmentation will continue to be priced into the global economy this year.

The markets are as capricious as ever. The FTSE 100 was up 15 points at the time of writing on Monday, but the Nasdaq and dollar were both weaker.

Political instability and its fallouts of deglobalisation and fragmentation will continue to be priced into the global economy this year. The big issues for markets will remain high AI stock prices, inflation and interest rates.

Yet when the market opened on Monday, investors piled into US oil companies and defence stocks such as Northrop Grumman Corp and BAE Systems Plc. The oil price itself is all over the place, swinging between gains and losses as economists everywhere try to unpack what will happen next.

The secular outlook for 2026 will see increased geopolitical fragmentation across historic economic and political blocs as old alliances and truces implode overnight.

I foresee huge opportunities for Africa and Asia, both economically and geostrategically, as the West finds its way in an era of neo-imperial decline.

• Dr Masie is a visiting senior fellow at the London School of Economics’ Firoz Lalji Institute for Africa.