GUGU LOURIE: Is SA’s broadband space about to ignite a fire under telco shares?

For years the digital divide in South Africa has been a story of two nations. One is connected and thriving on the high-speed backbone of fibre, the other languishing in the buffering agony of mobile data, relegated to the sidelines of the economy.

Villages, townships and informal settlements, deemed commercially barren by many, have become the forgotten frontier. But hold onto your hats, investors and consumers, the narrative appears to be rewritten in a new chapter.

The finalisation of the Maziv-Herotel deal, approved in December by the Competition Tribunal with conditions, could spark a competitive race to wire forgotten South Africa. The tribunal’s conditions were clear: Maziv must not waver from its “Vuma Reach” ambitions to pass 540,000 additional lower-income homes within three years.

This is no longer an optional corporate social investment; it is a mandated, competitive battlefield. Maziv, the Vodacom-Remgro offspring housing Vumatel and Dark Fibre Africa, now has Herotel’s extensive fixed-wireless and fibre reach in its arsenal. It also houses SADV, Rise Telecoms and BritelinkMCT.

The arrival of the Herotel network coincides with Maziv’s plans to spend R12bn from its capex war chest to expand its fibre network. The development poses a direct challenge to the establishment.

The arrival of the Herotel network coincides with Maziv’s plans to spend R12bn from its capex war chest to expand its fibre network. The development poses a direct challenge to the establishment.

Who is the establishment? None other than Openserve, Telkom’s wholesale behemoth. While competitors strategise about mergers & acquisitions, Openserve has been quietly, relentlessly weaving its fibre into the very fabric of the nation.

Openserve’s vast, shared infrastructure — spanning 8-million premises, more than 1,430 central offices and fibre presence in all 226 South African municipalities — generates a staggering 120-million network events monthly. With such a network Openserve holds a first-mover advantage in geographic coverage that is staggering.

Beauty Apleni, the media-shy CEO of Openserve, who has been at the helm for only five months, likely has something brewing.

Openserve, with its huge network, has not been resting on its laurels, quietly innovating for the low-income market. Products such as Fibre Connect/Webstream (10/5 Mbps) and Web Connect (10/10 Mbps), alongside flexible pre-paid bundles, are not only line items in a report. They are modern artillery products designed to secure the home in the very underserved markets Maziv is compelled to serve.

Openserve is built on ubiquitous infrastructure, a deep understanding of cost-sensitive consumers, and a customer experience score that is the envy of the industry. Its 1.5-million homes and a world-class Net Promoter Score of 79.6, which indicates strong customer satisfaction and loyalty, give it a competitive edge.

The question is whether the edge can withstand Maziv’s R12bn capex war chest being applied to expand its fibre network across the country. However, let’s not position this as a simple two-horse race. Lurking in the wings is a potential third giant: MTN’s a digital infrastructure company, Bayobab.

For the consumer in Giyani or Khayelitsha this war means choice, lower prices and, finally, a real stake in the digital economy.

MTN’s failed pursuit of Telkom laid bare its hunger for fibre assets. With a new South Africa MD at Bayobab’s helm from 2026, the stage may be set for a potential acquisition spree.

Will Bayobab open its cheque book to consolidate the fragmented landscape of Frogfoot, Metrofibre, Link Africa, Evotel and others? Regulators, having orchestrated the Maziv and Herotel conditions, may well view a strong third player as the ultimate guarantor of competition.

This could be the next major shake-up. Is competition about to heat up? Unequivocally, yes. This is an ideal situation: regulatory conditionality forcing investment into underserved areas, aggressive capex commitments and strategic product innovation targeting the mass market.

For the consumer in Giyani or Khayelitsha this war means choice, lower prices and, finally, a real stake in the digital economy. For the investor it signals a sector moving from infrastructure build-out to a fierce fight for connectivity market share.

This type of fight historically propels operational performance and, ultimately, share prices. Investors could smile all the way to the bank.

• Lourie is founder and editor of TechFinancials.