DESNÉ MASIE: The great relationship recession reshapes love, marriage and modern life

Marriage and cohabitation rates are declining worldwide.

The number of people choosing to couple up is on a downward trend, gaining momentum annually.

So what is going on? Is getting married becoming unfashionable, or is staying single cool now?

Despite what the media and Hollywood romantic comedies might tell us about the mythology in modern times regarding the aspiration of romantic union in a heteronormative format, the data on the ground shows otherwise.

Towards the end of last year, The Economist magazine ran an in-depth story on the phenomenon, quoting a blockbuster article from British Vogue magazine asking its predominantly female readers, “Is having a boyfriend embarrassing now?”

The Vogue article was meant to be tongue-in-cheek, but it struck a nerve. The truth is that women’s rights have led to women becoming highly educated, with sufficient earning power to not require marriage to be able to leave their parental home. This has also meant women can be more choosy when selecting a mate.

In South Africa too, the trend towards staying single is pronounced, with the 2022 census showing that about 61% of the population identify as single and never married. There are many reasons for this, including unemployment, but the data is perhaps not so surprising given almost 70% of the population is under the age of 40.

In South Africa too, the trend towards staying single is pronounced, with the 2022 census showing that about 61% of the population identify as single and never married.

The singleton trend has been particularly pronounced in Europe and in the Asian Pacific countries of Japan and South Korea. In South Korea women are extremely resistant towards what they see as the capitalistic industrial complex of heteronormative marriage, in a growing movement.

Young women worldwide have seemingly decided to “decentre” men, and some of those who have boyfriends will not include them in photographs on Instagram because it detracts from their “aura” as strong, competent women.

Accompanying lower marriage and cohabitation rates has been the obvious consequence of far lower birth rates globally.

There has been a backlash against this trend in the so-called “manosphere”, a male-centred movement advocating for more traditional gender roles, with the man as breadwinner and the woman as subservient and espousing feminine characteristics.

Some women have also joined in the traditionalist movement, saying that they have been lied to by feminists because they have found they cannot have it all.

Declining birth rates have also seen the global right and prominent adjacent thinkers such as Elon Musk telling their substantial numbers of social media followers that they must continue to preserve the traditions of marriage and having children to preserve local culture and populations.

But the culture wars and the war of the sexes have not been the only factors. A cost of living crisis globally has made marriage and the process of meeting people increasingly unaffordable.

The Economist referred to these outcomes as a “great relationship recession”, opining that it will require a big shift in economic and social policy as a solo economy emerges, with its own opportunities and challenges.

Not everyone is single by choice — 60%-70% of singletons globally would rather be in a relationship, though many say they stay single due to the “distress” of finding a partner — or what we in London call the binfire of dating apps, whose algorithms seem to be designed to keep people single.

The unintended negative effect of this is more loneliness, with more people turning to AI and robot companions, and, controversially, some experts say more social violence is likely if large numbers of young men remain unmarried.

Third spaces, where people can meet and form communities, become increasingly important. It will also require government investment in job creation and affordable housing, or the trend will remain sticky.

• Dr Masie is a visiting senior fellow at the London School of Economics’ Firoz Lalji Institute for Africa.