Markets do not wait for consensus. They respond to incentives, credibility and risk. When a country begins to repair itself, that change is first registered in prices: in spreads that narrow, in currencies that stabilise and in asset values that begin to re-rate, well before it is reflected in public confidence or political narrative.
That is why 2025 was pivotal. Not because South Africa’s structural challenges suddenly disappeared, but because the direction of travel became materially clearer. After a prolonged period in which risk accumulated faster than reform, the balance began to shift. For investors, trajectory matters more than perfection. And in 2025 the trajectory turned.
A cluster of milestones towards the end of the year made that shift visible. In October the Financial Action Task Force removed South Africa from its list of jurisdictions under increased monitoring, the greylist, a signal the integrity and supervision of the financial system once again meet global standards.
Shortly thereafter, S&P upgraded the sovereign credit rating from BB- to BB, validating what markets had already begun to price: a restoration of institutional credibility and a gradual compression of the country’s risk premium. In parallel, the medium-term budget policy statement reinforced fiscal intent, projecting a primary surplus of R68.5bn (0.9% of GDP) and a clearer consolidation path.
The immediate market response — a firmer rand and domestic bond yields touching multi-year lows — was telling. In November South Africa hosted the 2025 G20 leaders’ summit in Johannesburg, the first on African soil, demonstrating institutional capability amid global strain and reinforcing its role as a bridge between advanced and emerging economies.
Together, these milestones indicate a broader shift: a country slowly rebuilding institutional trust, strengthening policy credibility and re-establishing the conditions for investment-led growth.
Nowhere was that shift more evident than in our capital markets. The FTSE/JSE all share index didn’t simply grind higher, it signalled a decisive rerating. In 2025 it pushed beyond the symbolic 100,000-point threshold and by year-end closed near 112,000, a record high, becoming the top-performing major market globally. The market capitalisation of all JSE-listed entities is now about R24-trillion, up from about R12-trillion in 2018.
Supported by a stable rand, attractive real yields and robust foreign inflows, South Africa remains a compelling destination for equity and fixed-income investors.
That renewed confidence showed up not only in prices, but in participation. Liquidity deepened. Equity value traded was up 33% by end-2025 versus a slight decline in 2024. Equity derivatives activity strengthened too, with average daily value rising 13.8% to R27.1bn. The bond market recorded a 9.1% increase in total traded value to R49-trillion, driven by strong repo and standard bond activity.
New listings and additions to the market, including Cell C, ASP Isotopes, Greencoat Renewables and Optasia, reinforced that South Africa remains capable of attracting capital and building investable stories despite global volatility. Supported by a stable rand, attractive real yields and robust foreign inflows, South Africa remains a compelling destination for equity and fixed-income investors.
What matters most is the economic mechanism. Well-functioning markets convert confidence into funding, lowering the cost of capital and supporting investment in infrastructure and growth. An exchange cannot only reflect the economy. In a world of mobile capital and rising standards it must also act as a future-fit, multi-asset platform that deepens trust, widens access and channels long-term capital into productive enterprise.
Well-functioning markets convert confidence into funding, lowering the cost of capital and supporting investment in infrastructure and growth.
Over the past six years the JSE has undergone a deliberate evolution, strengthening its technology, modernising listing requirements and expanding its product and market offering to support a broader and more resilient capital-markets ecosystem. By building a more diversified, annuity-style revenue base and investing consistently in market infrastructure, the JSE entered 2025 as a more stable, future-fit platform, better positioned to support increased activity, deepen liquidity and connect global capital to South African opportunities as investor confidence returned.
That positioning mattered in a year in which markets began to rerate. The exchange’s expanded product suite, spanning sustainable finance instruments, innovative structured products and derivatives, alongside continued investment in post-trade, data and system resilience, enabled greater participation as risk appetite improved.
Operational reliability, modern access and credible market architecture ensured renewed confidence met minimal friction. Leadership in sustainability and transition finance helped channel capital into long-duration national priorities, reinforcing the JSE’s role not only as a mirror of economic momentum but as a mechanism through which recovery, reform and investment can be converted into durable growth.
Markets have signalled renewed belief. However, markets can reverse quickly if momentum stalls. The task for 2026 is to convert stability into durable, broad-based growth: sustain fiscal credibility, keep energy and logistics reforms moving from recovery to expansion, maintain consistent policy signals and deepen the partnership between government, business and institutions, which has begun to rebuild confidence.
If we do that, the virtuous cycle becomes self-reinforcing: lower risk premiums, deeper investment, higher participation, more listings, more capital formation and, crucially, more jobs, skills and opportunity. In this environment the JSE is well positioned to do what it does best: mobilise long-term capital into productive enterprise, widen participation across our markets and expand the pipeline of issuers.
The opportunities in infrastructure, renewable energy, innovation-led growth and transition finance are encouraging precisely because they are where market performance translates into measurable gains for more South Africans.
Last year laid the foundations. The real work is to build upward from them calmly, credibly and with ambition that matches the moment.
• Dr Fourie is group CEO of the JSE and serves on global boards, including the UN Global Compact and the World Federation of Exchanges.
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