There is rising competition among the major powers — including China, the US, the EU, Russia and India — as they jostle for access to Africa’s abundant natural resources, strategic geography and expanding consumer markets.
Unlike the overt territorial conquests of the colonial era, driven by European powers to sustain the second industrial revolution, this new rivalry manifests through economic and political instruments: infrastructure investments, development aid, military co-operation and large-scale resource extraction. These approaches often yield mixed outcomes for African nations, balancing promises of growth against risks of dependency.
Recent agreements on critical minerals emphasise strengthening global supply chain security. Key developments include the US forming a partnership with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Zambia to support electric vehicle (EV) battery production, and the minerals for a peace deal with the DRC and Rwanda.
Similarly, the EU has expanded its strategic alliances across Africa, signing agreements with the DRC, Rwanda, Namibia and Zambia, along with a memorandum of understanding with South Africa. Meanwhile, China maintains a strong presence through existing bilateral agreements with the DRC, Mali, Namibia, Rwanda, South Africa and Zambia, underscoring its long-standing influence in the sector.
Africa’s rising global significance makes it both a magnet for investment and a battleground for influence. While this competition offers opportunities for industrialisation, technology transfer and economic development, it also carries profound dangers – chief among them neocolonial exploitation, erosion of sovereignty and deepening structural dependency. The choices African governments make now will determine whether this modern scramble becomes a catalyst for sustainable progress or a replay of extractive patterns from the past.
Critical minerals are essential to modern technologies — from EVs and batteries to renewable energy systems and aerospace applications — and are at the heart of the global energy transition. With deep-rooted histories of extraction and geopolitical competition, control over these resources remains strategically vital. Africa harbours about $24-trillion in untapped mineral wealth — about 30% of the world’s known reserves. These deposits include lithium, graphite, platinum-group metals (PGMs), rare earth elements and cobalt — primary inputs for green and advanced technologies.
Africa harbours about $24-trillion in untapped mineral wealth — about 30% of the world’s known reserves.
Under current projections, meeting global green and advanced technologies needs by 2050 will necessitate a 500% increase in production of lithium, graphite, cobalt and related minerals. Africa’s resources are indispensable to reaching this unprecedented scale. From 2022 to 2050 nickel demand is expected to double, cobalt to triple and lithium to increase tenfold. The International Energy Agency predicts lithium demand alone will quintuple by 2040, with graphite and nickel doubling and cobalt and rare-earth elements rising by more than 50%.
Global revenues from just four critical minerals — copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium — are projected to reach $16-trillion over the next 25 years (in 2023 dollars). Sub-Saharan Africa is poised to capture more than 10% of these revenues, potentially boosting the region’s GDP by 12% or more by 2050. However, capturing raw-material revenues alone is not enough; value addition through local processing is crucial. For instance, processed aluminium sells at more than $2,335 a tonne, compared to just $65 a tonne for raw bauxite — a stark illustration of missed opportunities.
However, Africa faces a critical bottleneck in its mineral value chain: the scarcity of smelting and refining facilities.
However, Africa faces a critical bottleneck in its mineral value chain: the scarcity of smelting and refining facilities. This gap is driven by multiple structural constraints, including unreliable electricity supply, high operational and maintenance costs, inadequate transport and logistics infrastructure, and shortages of specialised technical skills. Global competition further compounds these challenges, as foreign operators dominate advanced processing capabilities. Consequently, African nations continue to export raw minerals rather than higher-value refined products — a pattern that significantly limits industrial growth, job creation, and long-term economic diversification.
Today, China runs the world’s largest ferrochrome processing of imported chrome ore from South Africa. It is imperative to develop domestic processing and refining capabilities, which not only capture greater economic value but also secure employment opportunities for local communities.
Geopolitical leverage
Critical minerals are no longer mere trade goods — they have become instruments of strategic statecraft and geopolitical leverage. In response to disruptions from Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the EU adopted the Critical Raw Materials Act in March 2023 to reduce dependency on concentrated external suppliers and strengthen domestic capacities in extraction, processing, and recycling.
Meanwhile, China’s 2010 export reduction — stopping rare-earth shipments to Japan amid diplomatic tension and slashing exports by about 40% — served as a geopolitical “wake-up call” on supply vulnerability. Further, China recently imposed export controls and licensing on key materials like gallium, germanium and rare earths, leading to supply chain concerns, though some restrictions were suspended in late 2025. Today, Western strategies increasingly target African deposits to diversify sources of critical minerals and cushion geopolitical risks.
Africa is now the front line in a geopolitical contest between Eastern and Western powers for control over vital mineral supplies. Its reserves of cobalt, lithium, PGMs and rare earths are in rising demand — but poorly governed mining could revive colonial-style exploitation, exacerbate instability, and entrench poverty.
African governments face a policy crossroad. They must transition from export-based extraction to integrated supply chains, local refining and sustainable management of mining revenues. This shift calls for robust regulatory frameworks, transparent revenue-sharing mechanisms and value-addition strategies that embed social and environmental safeguards.
To leverage Africa’s rich mineral endowment and avoid past extraction pitfalls, the following actions are essential:
- Promote local value addition: Support domestic processing and refining industries to capture more economic value and reduce dependency on foreign operators;
- Strengthen governance: Reform mining laws, fiscal regimes and royalty structures to incentivise equitable benefit-sharing and community development;
- Build strategic partnerships: Engage with global players on mutually beneficial terms that respect national priorities;
- Implement supply chain security: Increase domestic oversight, resource transparency and alignment with new international frameworks; and
- Ensure environmental and social sustainability: Uphold stringent environmental regulations, respect labour rights and protect affected communities.
Critical minerals have ascended to a new strategic height, as green-industrial ambitions and geopolitical rivalries converge on Africa. The estimated $16-trillion in revenues from a quartet of these resources, with Africa positioned to secure a significant share, creates both a growth opportunity and governance responsibility.
If Africa commits to transparent, equitable and sustainable mineral governance — with integrated industrial policy rather than raw commodity exports — then this modern scramble could inaugurate a transformative green industrial era on the continent. There are real prospects for industrialisation if Africa shifts from raw exports to local processing and beneficiation, which could add annual export value and secure the continent’s contribution to the global supply chains.
The right strategies today will define whether African nations are passive sources of unprocessed minerals or architects of their sustainable development.
• Dr Tshitereke, an honorary professor at Unisa’s Thabo Mbeki School of Public & International Affairs, is chief of staff at the minerals & petroleum resources ministry. He writes in his personal capacity.
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.