“If you are not at the table, you are on the menu.” These words, delivered by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at Davos this year, were a brutal wake-up call for the world.
He described a “rupture” in the global order, where great powers weaponise supply chains and where a nation’s sovereignty is defined by its ability to control its own food, energy and logistics.
For South Africa, the “table” represents our logistics network. It is the steel spine that connects our mines, farms and factories to the world. By starving Transnet of the capital it desperately needs to fix its spine, we are voluntarily placing ourselves on the menu.
There is a dangerous misalignment in the approach of the government. On one side, the department of trade, industry & competition and minister Parks Tau are pushing for “green industrialisation” and the “national dignity of sovereignty”. On the other, the National Treasury is pursuing a “no new money” policy for Transnet, forcing the entity to rely on its own decimated balance sheet.
Strategic error
While fiscal prudence is necessary, its blind application to critical infrastructure is a strategic error. The African Rail Industry Association (Aria) champions rail reform and the entry of private operators into the sector. We believe competition is the cure for inefficiency.
However, we also know a fundamental truth: private trains cannot run on broken public tracks. When the state refuses to fund the rehabilitation of the rail network it is not “punishing” Transnet; it is punishing the economy as a whole. It is in effect killing off industrialisation.
Transnet is the landlord of the logistics economy. If the landlord cannot afford to fix the roof, the tenants (private operators) cannot conduct business. Without a functioning network, the private sector cannot invest in the billions of rand of rolling stock needed to move our goods.
Worse, without Transnet’s procurement spend the local engineering and manufacturing sector — the companies that build our locomotives and wagons — is withering away.
We are facing a “fragile openness”. If we open our network to the world without a strong, state-funded Transnet to maintain the grid and enforce the rules, we risk replacing the state monopoly with foreign dominance. In a ruptured global order do we want our strategic supply chains to be entirely dependent on foreign-owned logistics giants?
A sovereign hybrid
We need a new deal that bridges the gap between the Treasury’s constraints and our industrial needs.
- Fund the infrastructure. The government must provide Transnet with equity, specifically for the network (tracks and signals). This is an investment in national security, not a bailout of operations.
- Enforce localisation. Our development finance institutions (the Industrial Development Corporation and Development Bank of Southern Africa) must step in. They should fund both Transnet and private operators, but with strict conditions: build local. We must use our own steel and engineers to rebuild our trains. This creates the “power of local” that Aria advocates for.
- Protect sovereignty. The rules of rail reform must ensure that South Africa retains control over its strategic corridors. We cannot outsource our sovereignty to the lowest bidders.
Advocating for Transnet’s funding is not to defend the past; it is to secure the future. We need a “hybrid-sovereign” model: a well-funded state infrastructure owner supporting a competitive, diverse and local private operations market.
Carney warned that “nostalgia is not a strategy”. We cannot go back to the old Transnet monopoly. However, we cannot rush into third-party access that ignores the threats of 2026.
If we fail to fund the backbone, the reform will not succeed. A nation that cannot move its own goods is not a sovereign state; it is merely a resource colony waiting to be carved up.
The government must act. Fund the tracks. Empower the private sector. Protect our industry. Let us take our seats at the table.
• Nhlapo is CEO of the African Rail Industry Association.
Watch Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney full address at Davos:
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