The scramble to secure critical minerals has moved from policy papers to a fullblown global race and the Riyadh Future Minerals Forum 2026 in Saudi Arabia made that unmistakably clear. Over three days in January, more than 20,000 policymakers, CEOs, financiers and technologists gathered at the King Abdulaziz International Conference Centre to debate minerals, supply chains and the energy transition.
What is at stake is not only export revenue but also who will host the upstream, midstream and downstream value chains for battery metals, rare earths and green energy materials for decades to come. Countries that align geology, policy, capital and technology most quickly are already locking in partnerships. Saudi Arabia mining company Ma’aden announced several partnerships, including the Aramco-Ma’aden Lithium Venture, a joint venture to develop new technology for extracting lithium from brine produced during oil extraction.
Another notable deal was struck between Canada and the Saudi Critical Minerals Cooperation, focusing on secure and sustainable supply chains. Saudi Arabia also solidified its role as a “midstream” partner for Africa, offering to process mineral concentrates from nations such as the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and South Africa into battery-grade materials using Saudi infrastructure.
What is at stake is not only export revenue but also who will host the upstream, midstream and downstream value chains for battery metals, rare earths and green energy materials for decades to come.
The Future Minerals Forum has quickly become one of the world’s premier minerals platforms. The Saudi government-led ministerial roundtable drew representatives from more than 90 countries and 70 international organisations, including South Africa. The 2025 forum reportedly facilitated 126 agreements worth about $28bn across exploration, research & development, and sustainability initiatives, underscoring that events such as the Future Minerals Forum are now deal-making arenas rather than talk shops.
The physical scale matched the ambition. Ornate venues, immersive exhibitions and national pavilions felt more like investment roadshows than traditional trade stands. The UK leaned heavily into London’s role as the world’s mining finance and metals trading hub, positioning the city and the London Metal Exchange as the balance sheet of the critical minerals transition.
Germany emphasised advanced technology, processing know-how and engineering solutions. Sweden pitched itself as a secure EU supplier of iron ore, rare earths and battery metals, meeting high environmental, social & governance standards. Canada reiterated its critical minerals strategy, covering 31 minerals, and marketed itself as a Tier 1 jurisdiction with strict rule of law, Indigenous partnership frameworks, and deep exploration capital markets in Toronto and Vancouver.
Meanwhile, Brazil framed itself as a diversified critical minerals powerhouse, spanning niobium, graphite, rare earths, manganese, nickel and bauxite, backed by abundant hydro and renewable energy and ambitions for low-carbon iron, aluminium and nickel.
By contrast, Africa’s presence was fragmented. Only the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mauritania and Egypt took the stage with full country presentations, with Mauritania and Egypt both stressing their strategic position between Africa and Europe. South Africa, by contrast, was barely visible, despite having just adopted a national critical minerals & metals strategy. At a forum focused on Africa and other “super‑region” suppliers, that absence felt like a missed opportunity to present South Africa as a partner of choice.
A striking theme in Riyadh was the deliberate use of state-owned or state-backed vehicles to integrate geology, capital and industrial policy across entire value chains. Saudi Arabia’s Ma’aden has been tasked with turning mining into the “third pillar” of the economy under Vision 2030, leveraging about $2.5-trillion mineral endowment. It operates about 17 mines and sites, exports to more than 30 countries and generated about $7.8bn in revenue in 2023, placing it among the fastest growing mining companies globally.
Its 2040 strategy targets growth in phosphate, aluminium, copper, gold and new minerals, supported by joint ventures, including critical-minerals initiatives with Aramco and rare earth processing partnerships with international players. Notably, Ma’aden has also embraced brand building as an industrial strategy, including a global sponsorship with the Aston Martin Aramco Formula One team that puts its logo on F1 cars and aligns the company with innovation and performance rather than old-school miners. This is a state-owned mining enterprise that dresses in sneakers and T-shirts, speaks the language of net zero and technology, and positions itself as a global champion rather than a domestic utility.
Less familiar to many South Africans is Uzbekistan’s Technological Metals Complex (TMK), established in 2024 as the country’s flagship state-owned enterprise for critical raw materials. TMK integrates exploration, mining, processing, R&D and downstream manufacturing across more than 100 projects and over 25 strategic metals, including tungsten, molybdenum, lithium, germanium, graphite, nickel and cobalt. Operating on a “minemetalmarket” model, TMK aggregates state assets into a single, professionally managed platform that presents coherent project pipelines to international partners. By lowering transaction costs and institutional complexity for investors, TMK illustrates how state-owned enterprises (SOEs) can catalyse fragmented sectors, an approach that many African countries might study more closely.
South Africa aspires to leadership in battery minerals and hydrogen technologies, yet high electricity costs, rail failures and port congestion undermine energy and logistics-intensive beneficiation. While the strategy emphasises exploration, South Africa still attracts below 1% of global exploration spend, and cadastre reform has been years in the making and is still not complete.
South Africa’s critical minerals & metals strategy, approved by cabinet in May 2025, sets out a clear vision to use the country’s mineral endowment as a platform for green industrialisation. It identifies 21 minerals linked to batteries, hydrogen fuel cells and advanced manufacturing, and rests on six pillars: geoscience and exploration; value addition and localisation; R&D and skills; infrastructure and energy security; financial instruments for beneficiation and regulatory harmonisation. Proposed interventions include expanded geoscience mapping and junior exploration support, beneficiation hubs and battery materials processing in special economic zones, and a long-promised “one-stop shop” for licensing across mining, environmental and water authorities.
On paper, this aligns closely with the whole-of-value-chain approaches showcased in Riyadh. Yet South Africa’s low-key presence at the Future Minerals Forum points to a deeper challenge: implementation risk and weak commercial signalling.
Several paradoxes stand out. South Africa aspires to leadership in battery minerals and hydrogen technologies, yet high electricity costs, rail failures and port congestion undermine energy and logistics-intensive beneficiation. While the strategy emphasises exploration, South Africa still attracts below 1% of global exploration spend, and cadastre reform has been years in the making and is still not complete. Policy coherence is a stated objective, but investors continue to face overlapping processes and uncertain timelines that push capital towards more predictable jurisdictions.
Against this backdrop, a muted showing at one of the world’s largest critical minerals gatherings may signal (intentionally or not) that South Africa is not yet ready to compete aggressively for its share of the transition. In 2025, the Future Minerals Forum reportedly saw more than $28bn in agreements announced. Each such deal locks in supply relationships and infrastructure that will shape global value chains for decades.
Three practical lessons emerge from Riyadh. First, show up with a coherent story. The UK and Germany arrived with clear narratives, finance and trading depth in one case, technology and processing in the other. South Africa needs to articulate a sharper global value proposition around geology, platinum group metals, processing capability and a credible reform trajectory.
Second, institutionalise the “one stop” approach. Integrated geological clusters and digital platforms, such as in Uzbekistan, transform investor experience when properly resourced and empowered. Third, turn strategy into investable pipelines. Whether through SOEs, blended finance platforms or partnerships with institutional capital, South Africa needs vehicles that can derisk projects and move from plans to bankable execution.
The Future Minerals Forum 2026 underscored that capital is increasingly conditional. Investors are willing to fund critical minerals, but only where geology meets a transparent, efficient and credible investment environment. South Africa’s new critical minerals strategy is a welcome step, yet without visible commitment, institutional reform and global engagement the energy transition will continue to be financed and built around the country rather than with it.
• Sternberg is a sector specialist for mining at the Public Investment Corporation.
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