JOHN DLUDLU: Carney’s Davos message is a warning SA cannot ignore

A week ago, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney shocked the world into recognising the end of the so-called rules-based world order. Helpfully, he also reminded the world, especially the small and middle powers, that it has an alternative to reclaim its agency.

Carney’s address in Davos, the gathering of the rich under the banner of the World Economic Forum (WEF), will be remembered as a seminal moment for the world. Hopefully it will help the West stiffen its spine against the bully in the White House.

When Donald Trump, America’s 45th and 47th president, finally took to the podium, Britain and the countries of mainland Europe, hitherto trusted second-class US allies, had drawn a red line through his plan to take Greenland by force.

In his address, Carney, a former central banker of two countries, also gave an excellent exposition of what Canada is doing with its agency. The world’s citizens owe him a debt of gratitude for reminding them of what is possible beyond current circumstances. This columnist is especially indebted to Carney for invoking lessons from the works of Václav Havel, the Czech writer-turned-president.

Since Trump’s return to the Oval Office a year ago, the world has lived through chronic uncertainty. South Africa hasn’t been spared from this. But the country faces its own unique uncertainties that it has to skilfully manage.

For three decades, South Africa has known only one dominant party, the ANC. This has provided certainty and predictability. When the ANC stopped caring, South Africans developed coping mechanisms to deal with it.

However, for the past decade this certainty has been upended by the ANC’s loss of its electoral dominance. In 2024 it lost its absolute majority at the polls for the first time, dipping to about 40%.

As in local governments, the ANC has had to form power-sharing arrangements in the provincial and local spheres of government. These have been more tactical than strategic, driven largely by narrow self-interest rather than the national interest.

The outwardly-dictated self-interest has been to block an ANC-EFF-MK coalition. This has succeeded somewhat. But it’s not a strategy the rest of South Africans can rely on to plan their daily lives over the next 30 years.

After the November rout and likely hiding in 2029, there is no telling how the ANC will react to a total loss of power and patronage. But South Africans can’t sleepwalk into this uncertainty.

To date, South Africans have employed an equally unsustainable tactic in response to the ANC’s misrule. That tactic has included registering to vote but staying away on election day. In the past general election a large majority of potential voters stayed home. Two messages arise: the ANC is no longer trusted as a vehicle to change their lives for the better, and they see no credible alternative.

In November the same messages are likely to be communicated through the local government election results. All of this keeps analysts occupied, but it certainly doesn’t heed Carney’s timely call; nor does it implement Havel’s message.

This year, those South Africans who participate will relitigate their grievances through the national dialogue despite past experience indicating that the odds are against its success. As with the WEF, the dialogue could be a good platform to define the problem but not to solve it. Carney is solving his country’s problems. South Africans need to do the same.

Until now, business — the most trusted institution in South Africa, alongside civil society — has supported multiparty democracy by propping up the devil they know (the ANC) and quietly funding moderate political startups such as Rise Mzansi, ActionSA, the EFF, COPE and the failed Change Starts Now.

Tellingly, none of these start-ups was based on evidence-based studies that established, without emotion or gut feel, what the people actually wanted. And, most importantly, what vehicle might best resolve their problems.

After the November rout and likely hiding in 2029, there is no telling how the ANC will react to a total loss of power and patronage. But South Africans can’t sleepwalk into this uncertainty.

In heeding Carney’s message, progressive business and South Africa’s international friends need to invest in understanding and crisply defining what comes after the ANC.

• Dludlu, a former editor of Sowetan, is CEO of the Small Business Institute.