South Africa remains stuck in nostalgic Cold War-rooted international relations, projecting middle-power status without the hard work on the political, diplomatic and trade fronts to justify this claim.
Much head-nodding followed Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s call at the Davos World Economic Forum for greater co-operation between middle powers in today’s ruptured international order.
Modelling his speech on Czech dissident-turned-president Václav Havel’s 1978 essay “The Power of the Powerless”, Carney brought it to today: “Hegemons cannot continually monetise their relationships. Allies will diversify to hedge against uncertainty,” he said without naming the US and its use of tariffs to shape a transactional, rather than rules-based, world.
So, what about South Africa as a middle power? The country is Africa’s most industrialised economy and a G20 member. Yet it is in effect excluded from this year’s G20 proceedings in the US, as falsehoods of a white genocide remain currency in right-wing circles. That the government has failed to end this disinformation reveals its cack-handedness, as does the failure to fill its vacant ambassador’s post in Washington in almost 11 months. Berlin’s top diplomatic post is now also vacant.
For years ANC leaders were hosted by the Chinese Communist Party, yet these fraternal relations produced few tangible domestic benefits. Both countries belong to Brics, the Global South club that challenges global hegemony in favour of more equal, multilateral relationships.
Instead China has hosted Carney, French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer for a series of diplomacy and trade deals. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is next. Uruguay President Yamandú Orsi visited on Tuesday.
Despite proclaimed nonalignment, South Africa’s global conduct highlights old order faultlines.
Fellow Brics member India finally signed a free-trade agreement with the EU in January, pushed over the line after 20 years by the present ruptured geopolitics.
For South Africa, aside from a few citrus and stone fruit deals, most significant is the November 2025 Clean Trade & Investment Partnership for co-operation on a clean economy and critical raw materials, signed in terms of the earlier €12bn agreement under the Global Gateway framework, the EU’s international investment portfolio.
Despite proclaimed nonalignment, South Africa’s global conduct highlights old order faultlines. The country abstained in six key votes on Russia’s war in Ukraine between 2022 and mid-2024, according to political magazine Politico. Analysts often point to the Soviet Union’s support for anti-apartheid activists, but the Soviet federation also included Ukraine.
Having brought the international Gaza genocide litigation against Israel, South Africa abstained from a recent UN vote to investigate Iran’s suppression of street protests, which human rights groups estimate killed at least 6,000 people. The EU has since declared Iran’s Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organisation, triggering criminal sanctions for financial or material support.
South Africa’s relationship with Iran dates to 1995 and focuses on minerals and military, providing the backdrop to the South African National Defence Force chief’s political proclamations of “common ground” and the controversial participation of Iranian vessels in January’s naval drills.
World leaders will pose for photos with President Cyril Ramaphosa — South Africa’s democratic transition under Nelson Mandela is still regarded as a miracle — but such PR moments don’t signal substance. Nor do they translate middle-power projection into real domestic benefits.
Instead, South Africa seems focused on tinkering with BEE with an eye on the Transformation Fund and performative politics. As on the global front, domestic governance flails. New National Prosecuting Authority boss Andy Mothibi begins his two-year stint before mandatory retirement with only two of his statutory four deputies in place, both serving in an acting capacity.
Middle-power status is earned by action, not conferred by orchestrated photo opportunities. It requires fleet-footedness, responsiveness and institutional integrity. Until South Africa treats diplomacy, economic policy and governance as tools of power, rather than political theatre, middle-power status remains an elusive aspiration.
• Merten is a veteran political journalist specialising in parliament and governance.
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