Resilient finance is not only about withstanding global risks, but also investing in solutions that help economies and communities thrive as the climate, economy and geopolitics shift. For emerging economies, resilient finance can catalyse the development of climate-resilient infrastructure.
In South Africa, innovative financing models are being applied to commercially structured transactions designed to strengthen the interconnected systems — economic, social and ecological — that underpin long‑term resilience.
However, a proactive approach is necessary, one that accounts for how growing risks threaten economic stability and societal resilience. Climate shocks are driving up inflation, suppressing growth and fuelling instability, pressures felt most acutely in emerging markets. Navigating this requires a step change from standard risk management to resilience by design. Building true resilience in finance means insurers and investors must integrate scenario analysis and climate risk modelling directly into investment and risk management decisions.
The challenge is not a shortage of capital; global liquidity is abundant. The real bottleneck lies in accessing and deploying that capital effectively. Development finance often remains trapped in public sector channels, unable to flow into private sector-managed vehicles where it could be deployed more nimbly and catalytically. Without fit-for-purpose vehicles that derisk projects, aggregate pipelines and connect large-scale capital to infrastructure through agile mechanisms, finance remains inaccessible while resilience gaps widen.
Institutional capital, including retirement funds, can and does support such investments to some extent, but the retail savings pool remains disconnected from national resilience priorities. While regulations around retail collective investment schemes such as unit trusts are essential for investor protection, they limit the ability of domestic savings to invest meaningfully in infrastructure and climate-focused assets.
Adaptation deserves a seat at the table alongside mitigation
Fixating solely on cutting emissions misses the bigger picture. By 2035, developing nations will need more than $300bn yearly for adaptation. There is a gap of more than $280bn annually. Bridging the chasm demands something radical — concessional and commercial capital must converge through scalable structures.
Public-private partnerships (PPPs) are ideal to connect projects to investment using clear frameworks and blended finance to attract a diverse range of investors. Models in South Africa (the Gautrain, for example), India and the EU show how PPPs can mobilise capital for climate-aligned infrastructure, converting complex development needs into bankable, investable projects.
Debt-for-nature swaps are emerging as a powerful tool to align financial restructuring with environmental protection.
Replicable risk-sharing vehicles and innovative investment structures are needed to attract private investment. Recent transactions show what scalable adaptation finance looks like when these elements come together. Climate Fund Managers, the Sanlam-FMO joint venture, has raised more than $2bn across its flagship Climate Investor 1 (CI1) and Climate Investor 2 (CI2) blended finance platforms, with the latter the largest yet climate adaptation infrastructure equity fund in emerging markets. C12 blends concessional capital, commercial equity and guarantee instruments to enable programmatic investment in water, waste, sanitation, biodiversity and other climate-resilient infrastructure.
Another example of adaptation finance at scale is the GAIA Climate Loan Fund, a blended finance private debt platform focused on emerging markets targeting $1.48bn. A total 70% of its capital is reserved for climate adaptation projects, with lending targeted at public and quasi-public entities responsible for critical resilience infrastructure. At least 25% of GAIA’s commitments are allocated to least developed countries and small island developing states, directing capital into the regions most exposed to climate risk.
Through initiatives such as SDG Namibia One and the SA-H2 Fund, Sanlam and its partners are also contributing to the early-stage development of the green hydrogen economy in Southern Africa, demonstrating how blended finance structures can accelerate frontier technologies alongside traditional infrastructure.
Debt-for-nature swaps are emerging as a powerful tool to align financial restructuring with environmental protection. Ocean Finance Company led a structure that converted $1.6bn of Ecuador’s debt into a $656m loan for marine conservation, a transaction of unprecedented scale. In South Africa, these principles are being applied to commercially structured transactions designed to also safeguard ecosystems and natural assets that underpin tourism, fisheries and coastal livelihoods.
What should the industry do now?
Insurance and investment have always been about understanding and managing risk, but now they must also help build resilience. As climate and geopolitical shocks intensify, the industry’s role is expanding from risk transfer to resilience financing. At Sanlam Alternative Investments we see these dynamics daily across Sanlam’s footprint of more than 30 countries, informing how we deploy resilience‑focused capital. In line with our purpose to create lasting value by unlocking the potential of emerging markets, resilience is embedded in strategy and long-term investment activity.
Across the sector, insurers and asset managers are beginning to recognise resilience as a source of long-term value. But the task now is to move from analysis to deployment — channelling capital into structures that protect economies, strengthen critical systems and support communities facing rising volatility.
Meeting this moment requires the following: embedding climate and scenario analytics into investment decisions; scaling blended finance vehicles that crowd in private capital for adaptation; and collaborating more closely with governments, development finance institutions and local institutions to turn resilience priorities into investable pipelines.
Resilience is ultimately a strategic discipline, shaping portfolios, capital planning and investor outcomes. The next phase is execution: investing not only to manage downside risk, but to unlock opportunity, build stability and support the long-term prosperity of the economies we serve.
If the industry embraces this mandate, resilient finance can become a genuine catalyst, delivering returns now while safeguarding the economies and communities of the future.
• Rosenberg is CEO of Sanlam Alternative Investments.
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