SONJA BOSHOFF | Agoa extension buys SA time — not competitiveness

South Africa has been granted a stay of prosecution in the matter involving the extension of the Africa Growth & Opportunity Act (Agoa). This has to be the most welcome news for the decade if one understands the economics of exports. One can even stretch it and equate the move to the proverbial lifeline.

The US extended Agoa to December 31 this year, backdated to when the programme lapsed late last year. For exporters and workers linked to US-bound value chains, this matters; it restores a measure of predictability and, crucially, keeps many tariff lines at preference levels.

This is against the background of South African exports still being caught in a separate 30% US tariff regime, which overwhelms the benefits Agoa is meant to provide. The extension prevents further tariff stacking on top of that 30%, but it does not restore the competitiveness South Africa once enjoyed under genuine duty-free access.

This is why agriculture and other trade-exposed sectors are treating the extension as breathing room and not a breakthrough. Businesses can keep contracts alive, limit disruption and avoid an immediate additional duty shock. Yet a 30% tariff is not a platform for growth — it is a slow squeeze on margins, volumes, investment and jobs.

The uncomfortable reality is that the US trade environment has shifted towards leverage, conditionality and political volatility. The extension itself is a warning signal after Congress debated a longer renewal, so the outcome is a short-term reprieve amid talk of redesigning Agoa to better serve US strategic and commercial interests.

South Africa cannot plan its export strategy around hope, hashtags or diplomatic theatre. We need a hard-headed national trade posture built around three pillars: reduce the tariff shock; diversify markets; and fix domestic constraints that make us uncompetitive.

The government says it is engaging the US constructively to reduce the tariff burden. That engagement must now produce measurable outcomes, timelines, sector priorities and a transparent risk plan for exporters.

South Africa should table a focused, pro-growth proposal framed around mutual benefit:

• Prioritise relief for job-intensive export lines (agro-processing, automotive value chains and key manufacturing inputs);
• Commit to removing clearly identified nontariff barriers that raise costs for US–South Africa trade where it is in South Africa’s interest (without undermining health, safety or legitimate public policy); and
• Insist that the negotiations remain anchored in rules, evidence, and reciprocity, not arbitrary punishment.

A reduced tariff band, even down to the high teens, would be meaningful compared to 30%. But the goal must be to restore predictable, rules-based market access, because uncertainty is itself an investment killer.

Export diversification is essential, and agriculture has already been pursuing it through expanded protocols and market openings. But shifting perishables is not like rerouting containers of manufactured goods.

It requires seasonal alignment, consumer preference, sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) compliance, and relationship-building over multiple seasons. That reality should shape policy, as diversification needs state capacity (SPS negotiations, certification and port health systems) and reliable logistics, not slogans.

In other words, diversification is a strategy, not an emergency button. If the government wants new markets, it must invest in the technical machinery that unlocks them.

outh Africa needs a trade strategy that is pragmatic and pro-growth, defends jobs, keeps markets open, deepens diversification and fixes the domestic constraints that strangle exporters.

Even if tariffs fall tomorrow, South Africa will still struggle if we cannot move goods efficiently and predictably. That means we need credible reform to port performance and rail freight reliability; faster, cleaner SPS and customs processes; policy certainty on property rights; energy security and regulation; and finally an export competitiveness drive built around cost reduction, not new layers of red tape.

The tragedy is that many of these constraints are self-inflicted. A country cannot plead for preferential access while undermining competitiveness at home.

Agoa’s extension gives South Africa time, but unfortunately not comfort. It is a window to stabilise supply chains, hold on to relationships and keep workers employed while tariff negotiations continue. What we cannot do is waste this window.

South Africa needs a trade strategy that is pragmatic and pro-growth, defends jobs, keeps markets open, deepens diversification and fixes the domestic constraints that strangle exporters. The aim must be clear: restore competitiveness and certainty, not manage decline with press statements.

If we get this right, Agoa becomes what it should be — not a lifeline, but a launchpad. If we get it wrong, the extension will be remembered as one more missed opportunity, and the bill will be paid in factories, farms and households.

• Boshoff, a permanent delegate to the National Council of Provinces from Mpumalanga, chairs the council’s select committee on economic development & trade. She writes in her personal capacity.