Confidence in the future of South African mining was very evident during the recent Mining Indaba in Cape Town. After years of suboptimal growth and confidence, this could signal a shift in the investment narrative, with President Cyril Ramaphosa highlighting during his state of the nation address increased exploration and geological mapping activities in the country.
It is clear there is much untapped potential. When it comes to Africa unlocking this, it is time to challenge the narrative that investors are not spending because of electricity constraints or logistics networks. Yes, these issues play a part, but our research suggests there are seven stakeholder-specific bottlenecks delaying investment.
For investors, there is a unique dynamic. On one hand demand for the likes of graphite, lithium, copper, cobalt and rare earth elements is far outpacing the investment needed to increase supply. This challenge is further compounded by the geographic concentration of critical mineral processing, with China taking the early lead and dominating the processing, refining and tech manufacturing.
This is heightening supply chain and offtake uncertainty and sidelining projects before they can secure funding. Regulatory complexity only compounds the supply problem — particularly as Western economies are now attempting to play catch-up and secure long-term supply.
African countries are focusing on growing extraction-related activities. For them to achieve this, they need to place emphasis on developing supply chains which bring buyers and sellers closer together.
If we look at the stakeholders involved in these supply chains, each has their own challenge; however, if we can achieve alignment, we create ecosystem-wide value.
African countries are focusing on growing extraction-related activities. For them to achieve this, they need to place emphasis on developing supply chains which bring buyers and sellers closer together.
In the African context, resource-rich governments struggle to attract private capital as a result of low investor confidence and limited derisking mechanisms that compound the industry’s inherent price cycle uncertainty. If they can accelerate progress from policy to exploration to funding and construction, they can create jobs and diversify exports.
Their counterparts are the off-take region governments — including the likes of China, Saudi Arabia, the US and Europe — which are hungry for these critical minerals but struggle to develop resilient supply chains due to geopolitical uncertainty or regional concentration. Ultimately, they are seeking diversified sources of supply, predictable input costs and lawful market access.
Mining companies are the third key set of stakeholders, and they grapple with unlocking financing for new projects because of price volatility across cycles and uncoordinated midstream infrastructure projects. Ideally, we want the junior miners and developers to reach funding decisions faster and benefit from stable prices and volumes during ramp-up, gaining access to lower-cost capital.
Processing companies are the next part of the equation. While demand should make them a natural home for capital, they instead are struggling to scale as a result of planning uncertainty and limited access to regulated markets.
With demand expected to outstrip supply, end-user companies are seeking reliable spec-compliant supply at predictable costs. If these end-users can secure a diversified, legal supply at more stable prices, they can reduce production and discontinuation risk.
As supply and demand mature, “traders” then start to play a more critical role in improving price discovery and liquidity, which should translate into improved price visibility and lower volatility.
With demand expected to outstrip supply, end-user companies are seeking reliable spec-compliant supply at predictable costs. If these end-users can secure a diversified, legal supply at more stable prices, they can reduce production and discontinuation risk.
Lastly, investors — both in the private sector and in the development finance arena — are struggling to find bankable projects offering risk-appropriate returns. An ecosystem approach would allow them to unlock more deals across multiple geographies and support more scalable deals.
Bringing together such a diverse range of ecosystem stakeholders is no mean feat — especially in such a rapidly evolving market. In the African context this takes on an added layer of complexity, as many of its market participants are struggling with lack of access to skills, infrastructure and capital.
Our recommendation is to create an orchestrated ecosystem across minerals and markets. Starting with a pilot of one commodity, a minimum viable ecosystem (MVE) of the smallest multi-country model to advance projects to bankability while fostering competition would involve eight steps:
- Shortlisting top country contenders and pairing them with compatible minerals, using a scorecard and scheduling framework.
- Leveraging existing networks to bring together participating governments, investors and industry actors.
- Designating an orchestrator as a neutral operator within an existing authority and issuing a governance notice.
- Publishing the rulebook and eligibility criteria, including recognition pathways and data aggregation protocols.
- Defining capitalisation needs and confirming funding sources across public and private partners.
- Establishing standardised templates for offtake, pricing and investment terms under predefined conditions.
- Building the digital interface for auctions or contracts and implementing data, rules and scheduling tools.
- Launching pilot rounds, monitoring results and refining performance through continuous feedback.
As the piloted MVE ecosystem begins to take shape, you would then proactively monitor the participation, capital flows and compliance. As this ecosystem scales, coordination fatigue or uneven engagement may arise. This can be managed through a shared roadmap, regular communication and early visible wins that sustain momentum.
Anecdotally, as we enter 2026, we are quite upbeat about the investments we are seeing being made into the ecosystem, and countries like Zambia and South Africa are taking positive steps to attract investment capital. In 2025 the G20 endorsed South Africa’s intention to focus on enhanced local beneficiation activities — a positive sign to those with investment capital to deploy.
With prompt action today, stakeholders can meet the burgeoning needs of the energy transition, urbanisation, advanced manufacturing and other rapidly moving global trends, and reap the benefits of industrial competitiveness in the coming decade.
• Nikomarov is partner and associate director, and Moencks is MD and partner at Boston Consulting Group in Johannesburg.
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