On a relative basis Southern Africa currently seems safe and stable. Yet the ANC should not respond idly to the clashes in the Middle East. The party’s leaders should exploit the burgeoning conflict to pivot away from its unaffordable anti-Western biases.
As the 2003 invasion of Iraq was extremely costly and did not promptly provoke peaceful prosperity, Western governments have since relied on sanctions to pressure so-called rogue governments. Consequently, ruling elites that live lavishly while entrenching widespread poverty — such as in Zimbabwe, Venezuela and Iran — have been able to attribute the resulting hardships to Western sanctions.
Western governments have been discouraged from responding more forcefully by the Pottery Barn dictum, “You break it, you own it.” But such sentiments have not survived Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, nor China’s intimidation of its neighbours while undermining the rules-based international trading system through its involution strategy.
As the interests of Western nations have become more vulnerable, they are now less willing to subordinate them to questionable morality-framed debates. In January the UN’s declining credibility was accelerated by its leaders’ mostly restrained criticisms of Tehran’s brutal slaying of unarmed protesters.
The ANC’s pathway to power was that of a liberation movement seeking to depose an unjust regime. This aligned with a post-Cold War shift across the West to embrace justice-based framing. But this shift, and the ANC’s exploitation of its social justice credentials, were overindulged. Commercial principles were unjustifiably sacrificed.
Donald Trump’s election as US president manifests the subsequent backlash. His controversial style continues to divert attention from deeper shifts. The Brics bloc and the Global South are largely constructs encouraged by China to advance its anti-Western goals. But China is not well positioned to assist aligned governments when they challenge Western interests, as Venezuela, Cuba and now Iran can attest. Russia is no exception; Beijing has benefited substantially at Moscow’s expense.
The condemnation of Tehran’s brutal crackdown on peaceful protesters from leading Western media outlets was largely muted. It now seems likely that the biased framing of Israel’s response to the savage October 7 2023 Hamas attacks will not survive Iranian street protests celebrating Israeli strikes.
Trump has encouraged protests in Iran, and Tehran’s remaining leaders will appear weak if they don’t crack down on them. This would risk dissension among Iran’s military factions and its political leadership. If they start shooting protesters again, communication channels exist among Iran’s populace to inform US and Israeli forces for precision strikes. This could prove decisive for Trump’s regime-change hopes.
Even those tightly cocooned within left-dominated echo chambers will be confronted by haunting images: young women and men alongside grandmothers, all unarmed, risking their lives to pursue the basic freedoms enjoyed by so many elsewhere. Wealthy Westerners will either be inspired by Iranian citizens succeeding or appalled by their being brutalised or killed.
Many ANC leaders are old enough to remember the 1976 Soweto uprising, which echoed the Sharpeville massacre. Tehran’s treatment of protesters has been even worse. The ANC’s surviving friends in Tehran’s government would probably welcome South Africa shifting towards a more neutral stance to encourage negotiations for the release of jailed protesters.
While all parties involved would have mixed feelings about such a prospect, involving ANC representatives could suit Western hawks. Referencing the ANC’s precedent for avoiding wholesale prosecution of those in the pre-1994 regime could make it easier to pursue something resembling real regime change.
Today’s ANC leaders have greatly tarnished the party’s international reputation. Conversely, ending the killing in Iran will not come about through speeches about overcoming historical injustices. The negotiations will have to look past much nastiness.
The leadership in Tehran is suddenly far more isolated and divided than it was earlier this year. But even then it could only suppress large-scale protests with lethal force. This provides an odd but much-needed opening for the ANC to pivot its foreign policy towards a more nuanced, commercially astute stance.
• Hagedorn is an independent strategy adviser.
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.