The Night Agent mini-series on Netflix has a scene where the US president tells two of her senior intelligence officials about the advice her father gave her years ago: “He taught me life gets easier when you learn to tell the difference between what you want and what you need.”
Sage advice indeed. This fictional presidential character explains simply why South Africa’s foreign policy of nonalignment is the smart way to go. Think about it. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney was applauded for his address to the World Economic Forum this year, when he stood up to the arrogance and belligerence of the US under the leadership of Donald Trump.
It was considered a seminal moment, where Carney warned that the so-called middle powers were pivoting away from the US and would not do its bidding. Less than three months later, when the US and Israel began bombing Iran, the Carney government issued a statement that unconditionally supported the US-Israeli wide-scale bombing — before Europe had even woken up, given the time difference.
In Davos it looked as if Carney was calling out Trump and his administration. Today he seems to be their cheerleader. This is the danger when you act based on what you want, as opposed to what you need. And it goes deeper than that folksy advice. The US is possibly the only country in the world that can do what it believes it needs to do (and even what it wants to do).
Developed countries in Northern and Western Europe, together with Canada, temper their needs so that they do not oppose the US. Why? Because the US is a superpower due to its military, economic and financial strength, the dominance of the dollar and its privileged status in multilateral bodies. It can act on its needs and even its “wants” if and when it chooses to.
Therefore, choosing sides, as opposed to having a view that may be different but does not necessarily equate to opposition, is the really smart way to go. South Africa has navigated the international arena quite adeptly since the advent of democracy more than 30 years ago. Nonalignment, which is not the same as neutrality as many try to define it, allows South Africa to hold a view that may not please the major powers and is also not a threat to them.
Of course, the haphazard and insecure nature of the Trump regime means it can and does often ignore the available facts if it already holds a particular view. The so-called “white genocide” is the most obvious example. Note though, that it was the Biden administration that accused the South African government of assisting Russia militarily.
Unlike Carney, President Cyril Ramaphosa can issue a statement calling for a cessation of hostilities in Iran and diplomatic talks without being attacked for not supporting the US or one of its Brics allies.
Iran is different to Iraq or Venezuela. It is a country of 92-million people, many of whom still support their government. An uprising is by no means guaranteed, even if its leaders are assassinated, and nor will Iran be bombed into submission.
Iran has missile bases buried deep in its numerous mountains. Control of the skies and seas will not neutralise them. And in such terrain you send in troops at your peril. The US is hoping the Iranian Kurds will attack from the north and enforce regime change, but so far they have held back.
Iran itself may have overreached by bombing neighbouring countries that host US military bases. Even the British base in Cyprus has been hit because Britain is assisting the US.
The bottom line is that this will not be a two-week or one-month war and anyone who states confidently that they know who will come out on top is lying. This is why South Africa’s position of non-alignment is smart as it allows us a lot more freedom than our friends elsewhere in the world.
Williams (@TheSherpaZA) is a social commentator.
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