By Futureworld
Dateline: March 31 2037
It sounds like an April Fool’s joke, but it’s true — after 160 years of easing world shipping routes, the Suez waterway is to be closed for container shipping. There’s just not enough demand to warrant the enormous expense of keeping the route open and operating.
The abrupt turnaround has caught owners of megaships by surprise, as new logistics models take over. Not only has the global movement of consumer goods and commodities declined significantly, but the pattern and flow of trade have been completely disrupted by exponential technologies.
Social, economic and environmental trends have also conspired to bring the days of big shipping to an end. Global trade no longer runs like it did in the 2020s.
Technologies such as 3D printing and molecular manufacturing have completely reversed the need to send raw materials to Asia and finished goods to Europe. Now the vast majority of products and components are created at the point of use, on demand. The specialised inks and input materials for these industries are high value and require short lead times; big ships are just too slow.
Thanks to climate change, Russia’s northern route via the Arctic has become more valuable. China’s Belt & Road programme has dramatically accelerated rail and road transport across Asia and Europe, while airfreight has boomed. SpaceX has launched “space shipping” Starships carrying hundreds of tonnes of cargo from Shanghai to New York in under an hour. It’s the only way to send expensive goods and uses less fuel than a 747 freighter.
As renewable energy has beaten out fossil fuels, there’s not much demand for oil tankers, and most gas is shipped by pipeline. Undersea cables carrying electrons and hyperloop tunnels for cargo are the busiest networks now.
The Suez Canal is still open for smaller craft and cruises; it’s one of those “must see” items, like the pyramids, a relic from the past. Egypt has put all its efforts into tourism in an effort to recoup the lost revenue from tolls. Just like taking the Orient Express, cruising the Suez is now for recreation, not trade. / First published in Mindbullets March 31 2021.
One Belt for a New World Order
China leads the push for Globalisation 2.0.
Dateline: July 3 2035
It’s taken two decades, but the demise of the US as the top nation was predicted way back in 2015. Now China is firmly #1 in economic terms, and the West looks decidedly lower-middle class.
The global power shift to the east has been driven partly by demographics but also by China’s determination to expand its sphere of economic influence and to co-opt key nations en route. Central to this ambition was the “One Belt, One Road” initiative, which links up dozens of nodes from Guangzhou to Rotterdam in a vast new logistics network.
Since the vision for this new Silk Road was announced in 2016, it has been expanded to involve 68 countries and upgraded for the digital age. Almost all the rail links, seaports and border points are also connected by ultra-fast digital networks and feature automated tracking and forwarding for global supply chain integration, enhanced with AI.
President Xi Jinping’s goal was to pull countries and multinationals into a new economic order dominated by China, and he has succeeded. The physical and virtual links spanning Asia and Europe have left North America behind.
The US has been desperately trying to revive the Trans-Pacific Partnership, but with so much of China’s funding and development committed to One Belt, only Japan is interested. Although the era of “America First” is long gone, the legacy effects remain a drag on US growth.
Now the heartland of commerce and innovation lies in the rich, abundant markets of East Asia, while the old leaders in the West struggle to emerge from their isolationist slump. China is the new king of the global hill. / First published in Mindbullets May 17 2017.
• Despite appearances to the contrary, Futureworld cannot and does not predict the future. The Mindbullets scenarios are fictitious and designed purely to explore possible futures and challenge and stimulate strategic thinking.
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