In recent days the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE’s) multi-layered defence systems were forced into high-intensity engagement as a concentrated wave of Iranian drones and missiles targeted critical infrastructure across the Gulf, including oil facilities and transit hubs.
Interceptor missiles lit up the horizon in real time. One of the world’s busiest aviation sectors ground to a halt.
For military analysts the message was plain: the entry barrier to high-stakes warfare has not merely lowered. It has collapsed. The mechanics of this escalation reveal a strategy of asymmetric exhaustion. Iran, heavily sanctioned and conventionally outgunned, deployed hundreds of drones and missiles in a matter of days.
The economics are devastating: a single Shahed series drone costs as little as $20,000 to manufacture; the Patriot interceptor required to stop it costs upwards of $4m. A defender can be depleted of ammunition long before the attacker runs out of components. Autonomous warfare has become cheap, accessible and commoditised.
If the UAE, with all its resources and infrastructure, is vulnerable to this degree, the implications for under-resourced African states demand attention. We are manoeuvring in a legal and ethical void where AI-powered military systems operate without the governance architecture necessary for accountability.
My research, conducted with colleagues across three African conflict states, reveals that these systems are no longer high-end imports from Turkey or China alone. Some AI-powered military platforms found on African soil — including Iranian Mohajer-6 combat unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) — are sourced directly from Iran’s supply chain.
A nation no longer needs a large defence budget to wage asymmetric warfare. It needs only the intent and a modest procurement line. In some cases nonstate actors now field more capable systems than the governments attempting to contain them.
The consequences are already visible. In December 2023 a Nigerian military drone struck a gathering at Tudun Biri village in Kaduna State, killing 85 civilians. The military had mistaken a religious festival for insurgent activity. No commander was held accountable. No independent audit followed. Advanced AI did not cause the failure — inadequate training, poor intelligence and the total absence of accountability mechanisms did.
‘Accountability desert’
I call this condition an “accountability desert”: AI-powered military systems operating with no independent oversight, no transparent rules of engagement and no mechanism for redress.
South Africa is not immune. The republic participates in the Global Commission on Responsible AI in the Military Domain (GC REAIM) a Netherlands-led initiative promoting the responsible and lawful deployment of such systems. Yet our security architecture remains built for conventional conflict, leaving us exposed to the hybrid threats of the 21st century, where targeting algorithms are proprietary and log entries become the final authority on human life.
Closing this gap requires specific action: independent technical audit bodies within defence structures to evaluate AI-powered systems before deployment; genuine parliamentary oversight of defence procurement, ending the reflexive classification of acquisitions as “special goods”; and AI-specific rules of engagement that mandate human override, ensuring personnel retain the authority to intervene when automated processes fail to account for the value of human life.
South Africa has the diplomatic standing within the AU to champion continent-wide governance standards and prevent Africa’s co-option as a testing ground for unregulated foreign military AI.
South African comedian Dalin Oliver recently found himself stranded in Dubai on his way to a festival in Australia. He saw missiles intercepted above him in real time. He eventually made it to his destination. Eighty-five people in Nigeria’s Tudun Biri village did not.
• Malisa-van der Walt writes for Future in the Humanities, powered by the SA–UK Chair in the Digital Humanities at Wits University. She researches AI governance in military contexts at Stellenbosch University’s Faculty of Military Science.
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