World War 1’s Gallipoli campaign (1915/16) lasted for about 11 months and cost more than half a million lives. When the British navy failed to subdue the Dardanelle defences, landing troops was the only alternative.
The idea was politically divisive, co-ordination between army and navy poor, the Turkish troops woefully underestimated and once ashore the allied troops failed to capture high ground. Only the withdrawal was well organised.
Just more than 100 years later US President Donald Trump has blundered into much the same situation at the Strait of Hormuz. If he backs down the US is finished in the Middle East, as will be the dollar as a global reserve currency. Doubling down means either an amphibious or nuclear assault, which the Israelis may already be considering.
About 2,200 US marines (amphibious assault specialists) are en route from Japan aboard the USS Tripoli. The 82nd Airborne Division may also be involved. For their part, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard is fired up, having prepared for this eventuality since 2003. Surely Trump won’t attempt what would inevitably become a noxious mixture of Gallipoli and Operation Market Garden?
But for him personally, and for the US, the alternatives are worse. Here in South Africa the government of national unity should already be actioning a plan that assumes Hormuz will remain closed for at least a year, with all the grave economic and social challenges this represents. So far the silence has been deafening.
James Cunningham
Camps Bay
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