Patrice Motsepe’s emergence as a potential candidate for the ANC and South African presidencies has disrupted traditional campaign structures.
The ANC’s once-dominant network, weakened by the 2024 election results and the MK party split, now faces an outsider with extensive resources and internal knowledge.
Several social media conversations, including inner-circle ANC figures, are discussing Motsepe as a crucial factor in the unfolding scenarios. As long as the race has not been officially declared and he is stepping back from active involvement in his business empire, it would be unwise for any aspiring presidential candidate to overlook the influence he already has.
Motsepe has denied involvement in the unfolding unofficial campaign for the ANC presidency, but he has not yet stated his position on the race for the country’s presidency, a role now open to any candidate nominated in parliament by a 50-plus-one vote. Securing this opportunity through a socially and politically influential party such as the ANC would benefit Motsepe, but it is not the only way.
Motsepe’s financial influence in South African politics, long felt behind the scenes, now appears poised to take centre stage. His entry shifts the dynamics of ANC succession politics, adding a new layer of complexity to an already fraught leadership landscape.
On the other side is Paul Mashatile, whose campaign for the ANC presidency remains well rooted. For many in the party, backing Mashatile seems the most pragmatic path, unless they align with Motsepe’s unprecedented bid.
Mashatile’s path to the highest office in politics demonstrates long-term planning, as do a few others in the political arena. Aside from Gwede Mantashe and Cyril Ramaphosa, Mashatile is the most senior among the top seven ANC leaders by any measure. That means the obstacles in his path to the ANC presidency are fewer; he can only be shaken by an outsider candidate.
Despite attempts to derail Mashatile through unofficial investigations into his history, networks and financial affairs, the prospect of his continued rise remains formidable. Whether these pursuits are motivated by genuine concerns or calculated political tactics they have done little to unsettle his position in the internal contest.
However, even if these distractions subside, Motsepe’s entry will compel the Mashatile campaign to navigate a treacherous, high-stakes environment where financial muscle and political capital collide. Yet the ANC is at a point where both are vital for its survival.
South Africa’s business sector still sees the ANC as a valuable, yet risky, asset. Despite decay, corruption and weakened organisation, the party retains social and political influence, mainly due to its liberation legacy.
These capital types are crucial for addressing inequality and challenging apartheid-era wealth. However, business confidence in these capitals is not limitless. If its leadership falters again, supporters may abandon the ANC in droves, echoing Mandela’s call: “If the ANC does to you what the apartheid government did then you must do to the ANC what you did to the apartheid government.”
As the ANC grapples with its internal issues, society’s demand for credible leadership remains strong. The 2029 elections will show whether the party can rejuvenate itself or if its era of dominance is finally ending.
The upcoming two-horse race between Mashatile and Motsepe could revitalise the organisation and provide clearer direction. But this requires discipline. Allowing more than two candidates could only increase the chaos and threaten the ANC’s already fragile renewal efforts.
The ANC is going to have to cultivate new leaders who can move beyond outdated liberation rhetoric. The party has thinkers and disciplined members capable of shaping a new vision, but they must be protected from the factional battles that have hampered its potential.
Whichever candidate emerges victorious must commit to accountability and authentic renewal. In the unlikely event that Motsepe is genuinely not interested in both the ANC and South Africa’s presidencies, Mashatile would be the ideal frontier to uphold the Mbeki assertion that the ANC is too big to collapse.
• Mathebula, a columnist from the Thinc Foundation, hosts Thinc Conversations on BDTV.
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