As the conflict in the Middle East persists there are clear risks to energy, gas and fertiliser supplies, and it has been a big focus for South African farmers in recent weeks.
However, the conflict may also disrupt exports of various products to the region. For South Africa’s agriculture, the Middle East is a key export market, accounting for an average of 8% of agricultural exports by value over the past five years.
South Africa’s agricultural exports to the world market reached a record $15.1bn (R256.7bn) in 2025, up 10% from a year ago. The United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Jordan and Qatar are among our key agricultural export markets in the region.
From a product-specific perspective, citrus, apples and pears, beef, strawberries, goat and sheep meat, grapes, apricots, cherries, peaches, various nuts and maize are some of the key agricultural products South Africa exports to this region.
South Africa’s agricultural exports to the Middle East, worth $1.3bn in 2025, or 8% of the overall agricultural exports, are at risk from this crisis. Shipping costs are rising. Agricultural businesses that export to the Middle East will explore whether other markets can absorb their products.
South Africa’s citrus, strawberry and maize harvest seasons will soon begin countrywide, and as the conflict in the Middle East drags on, trade interruptions will persist. Thus, exploring whether countries such as China, India, Singapore and others in Asia can increase their share of agricultural product imports from South Africa is key.
It also involves assessing whether the EU can increase its typical share of agricultural product imports from South Africa, with the UK. Fortunately for the citrus industry, South Africa also now has relatively better tariff levels for exports to the US. The tariff rate is 10%, and for some products such as nuts, oranges and juices, there are no duties.
Still, while the conflict will impose big costs to businesses, South Africa must remain focused on its long-term agricultural export growth strategy, which has the Middle East as a key target market. In times of peace and reconstruction this region would be a key agricultural export market.
We believe there remains room to increase exports in peacetime. South Africa plays a peripheral role in the region’s agricultural markets. For example Saudi Arabia imports on average about $29bn of agricultural products a year. South Africa is one of the smallest exporters to Saudi Arabia, accounting for 1% of its imports and ranking 31st in agricultural imports.
The UAE is a large agricultural market and typically imports about $23bn of agricultural products, of which South Africa, the 16th-largest supplier, has an about 2% share. Qatar imports $4bn of agricultural products annually, and South Africa also plays a small role, ranking 10th among suppliers to Qatar and holding a 2% market share in its agricultural imports.
The countries with the largest market share in these Middle Eastern countries are India, Brazil, Australia, the US, Canada, New Zealand, the UK and Denmark. Regarding products, the Middle East primarily imports meat, grains, oilseeds and fruits.
Given that South Africa has some of these products in surplus, the country could benefit from increasing its market share with targeted promotion and marketing, with government support to nudge Middle Eastern countries to address any remaining phytosanitary barriers to South African products.
The conflict must not shift South Africa’s established view that the Middle East is key to expanding agricultural exports.
• Sihlobo is presidential envoy on agriculture and land, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa and a senior fellow in Stellenbosch University’s department of agricultural economics.
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