The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp’s (IRGC) ongoing control of the Persian Gulf puts the world’s economic development momentum at risk. Given that removing the IRGC from power seems unrealistic, the war could conclude with that regime being aggressively sanctioned — to the point where the world order tilts decisively towards embracing realism over idealistic hopefulness.
Many scenarios are now plausible, but there doesn’t seem to be sufficient political will in the region or in Washington to remove the IRGC from power. The costs are prohibitive. Nor is it clear how a new government could be formed. What is clear is that if open access to the Persian Gulf is achieved through military force, Iran’s ability to export oil can be regulated by external parties.
US President Donald Trump’s extraction of Venezuela’s de facto leader has distracted attention from how his “maximum pressure” sanctions have curtailed that country’s ability to sow regional instability. Idealists insist, not unjustifiably, that this must lead to elections. While supporting such an outcome, realists would be satisfied if Caracas could no longer support terrorist and criminal networks that undermine peace and prosperity in the region and beyond.
Vibrant democracies and broad prosperity are uncommon among resource-endowed countries. Most commodity-exporting countries are poor, and quite frequently their governance and development are constrained by tribal rivalries being exploited. Irrespective of whether such “tribes” are kinship-based or reflect religious or ideological alliances, they encourage patronage.
Patronage-focused governments of resource-endowed nations have exploited the politics of wealthy nations that emphasise social injustices and identitarianism by encouraging large-scale migration to those countries. The migration then ferments discord among the more affluent nations, further undermining their economic and political capacity to respond to regional and global dislocations. This was never sustainable, and it seems to have peaked.
Wealthy nations concerned by the injustices of poverty are easily exploited by the ruthless rulers of commodity-exporting nations when they say, “We are poor, you must help us.” The assistance provided is then mostly shared among those who are best positioned within the local patronage network. Robert Mugabe personified such outmanoeuvring of aid providers.
Wealthy nations concerned by the injustices of poverty are easily exploited by the ruthless rulers of commodity-exporting nations when they say, “We are poor, you must help us.” The assistance provided is then mostly shared among those who are best positioned within the local patronage network. Robert Mugabe personified such outmanoeuvring of aid providers.
It is considerably easier to achieve effective governance and development momentum in countries that are not richly endowed with natural resources. But how extreme must the domestic, regional and broader harm be to justify having an external organisation regulate how funds from commodity exports are distributed?
After killing peaceful protesters and attacking all of its neighbours, the IRGC cannot be considered a legitimate governing body. Thus, if it is able to use export proceeds to wreak havoc domestically and beyond its borders, is the “international community” complicit?
The range of possible outcomes falls into three broad categories. Iran might have access to far more missiles than expected and the conflict might persist for quite a long time amid some bartering over shipping. Or there could be a negotiated end to the war. Alternatively, Iran’s ability to block the strait could be defeated militarily.
Such a defeat is unlikely to lead to the downfall of the IRGC. But if normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is soon restored through military force, the IRGC must not be allowed to sell oil and use the proceeds to resume its missile, drone and nuclear weapons programmes while brutally oppressing its people.
The IRGC and others will argue that Iran is a sovereign country and its sovereign rights must be protected. A broad rejection of such arguments could be among the most consequential outcomes of the war.
Various Middle East countries are diversifying away from over-reliance on commodity exports. Iran’s potential is illustrated by Dubai having become a tourist and financial hub, along with the region’s stunning successes at creating air and sea transport hubs.
To protect such major achievements, Iran’s neighbours, with the assistance of other realistically grounded governments, must block the IRGC’s ability to fund its military operations. From there, they and others must press for deep reforms within Iran.
• Hagedorn (@shawnhagedorn) is an independent strategy adviser.
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