Four weeks since the war in the Middle East broke out, it remains unclear how long the conflict will continue, how bad the damage to infrastructure will be, and how long it will take to undertake repairs in the affected countries.
For every day the war drags on the negative shock inflicted on the world economy grows. For exporting businesses this is a risk that needs to be taken seriously, and planning should start to find alternative export markets where conditions permit.
We are approaching the citrus export season in South Africa. The challenge for the current year is not only the likelihood of ample domestic supplies, but also a recovery in Brazilian output, which will intensify competition with South African products in export markets.
The same is true of other fruits and berries, whose export seasons are also fast approaching. While the Middle East is not South Africa’s biggest export market — the region accounted for about 8% of our total agricultural exports of $15.1bn in 2025, according to Trade Map data — the impact of logistical challenges accessing this market will be felt in the near future.
The path ahead requires the country’s exporting industries, along with the departments of agriculture, trade, industry & competition and international relations & co-operation, are in communication about the risks and prioritisation of new export markets that might have the capacity to absorb the extra produce from South Africa.
Serving the South African business community in times of such need is a key part of the country’s economic diplomacy mandate. Assistance to businesses in these critical times is vital to demonstrate South Africa has an effective economic diplomacy policy, and can use it to serve businesses, which will ultimately help maintain jobs in South Africa.
The industry must lead the effort by outlining the markets where trade relationships already exist or are most likely to be established swiftly, and thereafter communicate this information to the relevant policy departments, which can use this insight to plan and initiate conversations at government level.
Importantly, economic analysts in South African missions across the world also have a role to play in assessing whether there is a possibility to advance South Africa’s agricultural exports in the near term in the regions where they serve to avert the challenges posed by the Middle East conflict.
Communication from these missions can be through commodity associations or via the usual channels in Pretoria. Serving the South African business community in times of such need is a key part of the country’s economic diplomacy mandate. Assistance to businesses in these critical times is vital to demonstrate South Africa has an effective economic diplomacy policy, and can use it to serve businesses, which will ultimately help maintain jobs in South Africa.
Beyond this challenge, the Middle East conflict again exposes the need for South Africa to increase its focus on export diversification as a matter of course, not only in times of crisis. This entails opening as many new export markets as possible to broaden growth opportunities for domestic businesses and reduce the risks associated with overexposure to a small number of markets.
We should also never forget South Africa’s long-standing ambition to expand agricultural production through underutilised government-owned land also has the potential to bring more previously disadvantaged farmers into the commercial farming sector and lead to a major increase in production.
However, domestic expansion of agricultural production in these new lands cannot be economically sustainable without ensuring we have new export markets to absorb the produce and, ultimately, keep farming businesses profitable.
The risks that have arisen in the Middle East when it comes to South Africa’s agricultural exports are not a reason to disregard this region. It remains key to our long-term growth strategy as an export market. What we are facing now is an immediate challenge that must be addressed calmly and intelligently, but with determination.
• Sihlobo is presidential envoy on agriculture and land, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa and a senior fellow in Stellenbosch University’s department of agricultural economics.
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