We are entering a busy period in South Africa’s agricultural production cycle. On April 23 we are due to receive the crop estimate committee’s (CEC’s) third production forecast for 2025-26 summer grains and oilseeds. This estimate is typically a stronger indicator than the first two on how the season’s harvest will look, as the crop has largely passed the pollination stage.
Simultaneously, we are due to get the CEC data on farmers’ planting intentions for 2026-27 winter crops. The weather outlook, winter crop prices as well as the availability and cost of inputs, among other considerations, inform farmers’ views on their planting for the season.
At end-April the citrus farmers and strawberry growers will start the harvest period and their export season. To them, the efficiency of domestic ports, shipping costs and access to export markets less affected by the Middle East war are top-of-mind issues.
I remain optimistic about the readiness of the domestic ports. The ports operated efficiently last season, ensuring a successful citrus export season. What worries me is the export markets, especially as South Africa’s available citrus for exports may increase by as much as 3%-5%, reaching a total of 210-million to 215-million 15kg cartons in 2026.
Such volumes will require ready export markets, but the Middle East, an important export market, may remain difficult to access. Making things more challenging is that we also anticipate stiff competition from higher citrus volumes from South America.
Regarding the 2025-26 summer grains and oilseeds production season, the outlook has remained broadly positive. At end-March CEC projections placed South Africa’s 2025-26 summer grains and oilseeds production at 20.3-million tonnes, 1% below the 2024-25 production season.
The 2024-25 summer grains and oilseeds harvest was the second largest yet. Therefore, that the 2025-26 estimate is marginally lower than it was is not cause for concern, as this would still be robust output. This production figure comprises maize, sunflower seed, soya bean, groundnuts, sorghum and dry beans.
It is likely that when the CEC releases an update on April 23 it will maintain a decent harvest projection or possibly raise the estimates slightly as weather conditions have remained generally favourable and the crop is maturing.
Regarding the 2026-27 winter crop season, our focus will primarily be on wheat, barley, canola and oats. Input costs are likely to be the major factor farmers will be most concerned about this time, as fertiliser and fuel prices have increased notably since the start of the Middle East war. Still, it is unclear how many farmers had procured their inputs by the time the war started, and therefore the planting intentions data will be valuable for providing that insight.
Another factor farmers will consider is the winter weather outlook. In its monthly Seasonal Climate Watch released on March 2 the South African Weather Service signalled the prospect of a relatively drier winter season, stating that “during the autumn and early winter, it is only the southern and eastern coastal areas that receive significant rainfall. For these areas, the southeastern and eastern coastal areas are expected to receive above-normal rainfall, and the south-western parts below-normal rainfall”.
The southwestern regions of South Africa that the weather service cites include the Western Cape, where more than two-thirds of South Africa’s winter crops are cultivated. But it is too early to be certain. The update for this month will perhaps be more informative about the weather prospects for the season.
This month will provide crucial insights on the sector’s outlook for the coming season.
• Sihlobo is presidential envoy on agriculture and land, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa and a senior fellow in Stellenbosch University’s department of agricultural economics.
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