As freedom of navigation is foundational to global commerce and international law, its decline depicts growing cracks in the rules-based order. If traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted, resource rationing will reflect commercial and political considerations.
Not unlike doctors drawing blood to identify health threats, evidence had been gathered showing that its production of drones and ballistic missiles was making Iran, the world’s chief sponsor of terrorism, unassailable. Tehran’s success at blocking access to the Persian Gulf now validates such concerns. Risk assessments were further elevated when Tehran was unwilling at the weekend to negotiate the cessation of its nuclear weapons programme.
Those talks in Islamabad contrast with the promotion of “Solidarity, Equality & Sustainability” at the Group of Twenty (G20) summit South Africa hosted last year. Strong global economic growth only becomes sustainable when robust international trade is supported through solidarity about principles such as freedom of navigation.
Evidence of Iran’s growing supply of missiles and drones was not inspiring a broad coalition to seriously confront the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). There was no such solidarity, nor was equality to be interpreted as an equal responsibility to stand up to global threats.
It was not unreasonable for the organisers of last year’s G20 to hope for solidarity, equality and sustainability. It was, however, unrealistic to presume that such ideals were within reach ― particularly while supporting Tehran’s terrorist-embracing regime.
As the US has the largest economy and the most formidable military, and as Israel’s security was most at risk, those two countries had sought to dissuade the IRGC from pursuing nuclear weapons by attacking their development facilities and their missile and drone depots. We now know that the Iranians are better supplied than anticipated and it is suspected that Russia and China are providing various forms of support.
The big picture is that China undermined the global trading system by systematically overcoming the World Trade Organisation’s ability to prevent dumping. Its strategy has been to subsidise key industries to the point where foreign competitors go bankrupt. This has been playing out with solar panels and, increasingly, with electric vehicles.
As with the threats from the IRGC, there is no solidarity among nations regarding how to respond to China’s predatory policies. The leaders of European nations and Canada show little inclination to confront China as the near-term consequences would be politically costly. As a consequence, the long-term prospects for their economies, particularly vehicle production, are bleak.
Intercontinental tourism, a major driver of economic development in many emerging nations, has surged since the end of the Cold War, yet such growth may be unsustainable unless there is greater solidarity to confront global challenges. Shortages of jet fuel loom in Europe, Asia and beyond. Airlines are expected to cut back on marginally profitable long-haul flights. Governments will influence such decisions as some flights are far more strategic than others. This has much potential to show how perceptions of solidarity and equality are misplaced.
While politicians and media outlets will shape victim-focused narratives, what is being depicted is a shift from post-Cold War idealism to a new, more realism-grounded era. The pace of this shift has accelerated rapidly, and many countries are failing to adapt. Most European leaders seem as unprepared to adapt as their counterparts in Pretoria.
The political leadership of Europe’s largest countries seems unable to adopt a solutions-focused determination despite the threats from two hot wars and an economic war with China that they are losing. South Africa’s leaders cannot even seem to appreciate the need to firmly distance themselves from the IRGC.
We have the world’s worst youth unemployment crisis, as only a sliver of our young adults add value to exports. Conversely, international tourism supports about 1-million jobs in South Africa. Those jobs are now at risk due to solidarity with an Iranian government that rejects freedom of navigation.
• Hagedorn is an independent strategy adviser.
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