Early projections suggest the La Niña weather phenomenon, which brought above normal rainfall across the summer crop growing areas in South Africa, leading to higher crop yields, has ended.
What may follow in the 2026-27 summer crop season, which starts in October, presents some risks. The latest projections from the South African Weather Service (SAWS), the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the International Research Institute for Climate & Society suggest we are transitioning to an El Niño in late 2026 and 2027.
During such weather events South Africa and the rest of Southern Africa typically receive below-average rainfall. In extreme cases, an El Niño brings a harsh drought. The impact of such drought conditions on summer grains, oilseeds, fruits, vegetables and grazing veld, among other activities, is typically severe.
A lot remains unknown about the potential severity of the 2026-27 El Niño. International Research Institute for Climate & Society estimates suggest a high likelihood of its occurrence, with a probability exceeding 70%.
Farmers typically start their planting season in October. Leading up to that, SAWS will release monthly updates on how it sees the weather conditions shaping the country over the coming months. What we will learn about the weather outlook in South Africa will generally apply to most countries in the Southern African region.
The El Niño weather event comes after two consecutive seasons of favourable production conditions in South Africa’s agriculture. The country has enjoyed ample crop yields, for example. For the 2025-26 season summer grains and oilseeds production is estimated at 20.3-million tonnes, down 1% from the 2024-25 production season.
The 2024-25 summer grains and oilseed harvests were the second-largest yet. Therefore, the 2025-26 production remains strong, despite the slight decline from a year earlier. The figure comprises maize, sunflower seed, soybean, groundnuts, sorghum and dry beans.
We have also seen excellent harvests across fruits and vegetables, primarily supported by La Niña-induced rains during the 2025-26 summer season and the previous season.
Depending on how severe the 2026-27 El Niño weather event is, and how farmers adjust their planting areas, it is reasonable to expect a decline in the harvest compared to Niña rainy periods. If we consider maize as an indicator of the impact of droughts on agriculture, during the 2023-24 season, when a mild mid-summer drought occurred, South Africa’s maize harvest fell by 22% from the previous season to 12.9-million tonnes.
In the current 2025-26 favourable agricultural season we expect a maize harvest of 16.5-million tonnes, which provides a perspective of how significant that decline was. In other severe droughts — 2017-18 and 2018-19 — South Africa’s maize crop fell to an average of 11.8-million tonnes.
The notable decline, and one of the most memorable droughts, occurred in the 2014-15 and 2015-16 seasons. In that period South Africa’s maize harvest fell to about 8.9-million tonnes on average. South Africa’s annual maize consumption is about 12-million tonnes, and a smaller harvest meant the country had to import to supplement domestic supplies.
The situation in 2026-27 will be different even if South Africa experiences a harsh season. There are ample maize supplies from the previous season, which would cover domestic needs.
Moreover, soil moisture is slightly better after two seasons of excellent rains, which will provide much-needed support for seed germination during the planting season.
Dams countrywide are generally at healthy levels to support fruits and vegetables, which are 100% planted under irrigation in South Africa, while field crops are about 20% under irrigation.
It is still early days though, and more reliable data will become available in the coming months.
• Sihlobo is presidential envoy on agriculture and land, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa and a senior fellow in Stellenbosch University’s department of agricultural economics.
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