South Africa’s winter crop farmers face a challenging start to the 2026-27 production season.
Lower commodity prices resulting from ample global wheat supplies are one challenge. But the sharply higher fuel and fertiliser prices are an even more pressing challenge as the season starts in the Western Cape and proceeds to other provinces over the coming two months.
A more uncertain weather outlook, with a chance of lower-than-normal rainfall, is another issue farmers must consider as they plan area plantings for the season. But of all five winter crops South Africa produces ― wheat, barley, canola, oats and sweet lupines ― the wheat industry is the most strained.
Thus, it is unsurprising that farmers intend to reduce their wheat plantings in the 2026-27 season by 6% to 486,400ha, according to the Crop Estimates Committee’s farmers’ intentions to plant data. The provinces expected to see a notable decline in plantings are the Western Cape, Free State and North West.
Planting in other smaller-growing provinces is projected to remain fairly stable. Still, given that the provinces set to experience a decline in plantings account for more than half of South Africa’s winter crop area, the impact will be evident at national level. The expected area plantings of 486,400ha would be the lowest for wheat in South Africa in 12 seasons.
We suspect the challenge of lower global wheat prices may weigh more than the issues of higher input costs and weather concerns in farmers’ considerations for the plantings. We say this because wheat is the only winter crop expected to see a decline in plantings.
Meanwhile, barley, canola, oats and sweet lupines could see area plantings increase this new season, according to the Crop Estimates Committee data. For example, South Africa’s 2026-27 barley plantings are expected to increase 5% from the previous season to 101,900ha, the largest area in three seasons. The increase reflects a shift from some wheat plantings to barley, likely due to profitability issues.
The 2026-27 canola plantings could increase by 8% from the previous season to 189,175ha. This will be the largest canola planting on record, also because of the switch from the typical wheat-growing regions as farmers seek higher profitability. The 2026-27 oat plantings are expected to increase 10% from the previous season to 39,000ha, which would also be a record area planted.
Wheat prices in South Africa as we end April 2026 are around R5,700/tonne, about 8% lower than a year ago. While this price decline may not seem notable, combined with higher input costs, it weighs on farmers’ finances as they plan for the start of the 2026-27 wheat season.
The generally lower wheat prices are partly due to ample global wheat supplies. For example, the International Grains Council forecasts global wheat production for 2025-26 at a record 845-million tonnes, up 5% from the previous season. The maple harvest put pressure on global wheat prices, which in turn led to a decline in South African wheat market prices.
While this has been a challenge for farmers and has raised concerns about the long-term sustainability of the industry, consumers have, at least in the near term, benefited from lower wheat prices. South Africa imports about half of its annual wheat consumption, estimated at about 1.85-million tonnes in the 2025-26 marketing year.
The lower prices and the reliance on imports have always underscored the need to balance consumer welfare and farmers’ financial sustainability in discussions about wheat import tariffs.
Overall, South African winter crop farmers start the year on a challenging footing and wheat farmers face the biggest challenge of all.
• Sihlobo is presidential envoy on agriculture and land, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa and a senior fellow in Stellenbosch University’s department of agricultural economics.
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