Dateline: June 15 2032
In a dramatic reversal of trend, global oil demand is on the ascent again, barely two years after reaching its anticipated peak in 2030 as forecast by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in 2023.
Confounding industry experts and stirring up the energy markets, the rising demand for oil signifies a dichotomy in global progress towards renewable energy. Oil producers find themselves unexpectedly back in the limelight, while environmentalists express concern over the challenges this resurgence may pose to a swift transition to a post-carbon era.
This unexpected spike in demand is being driven by the burgeoning middle class in developing economies and their slower-than-predicted adoption of renewable energy alternatives. Industries such as aviation and freight transport, still heavily reliant on fossil fuels, are experiencing a renaissance in these regions, fuelling the rising demand.
Estelle Marion, a leading energy analyst at the London Institute of Energy Studies, noted: “The ‘peak oil’ forecast of 2030 hinged on a globally accelerated shift to electric vehicles and solar power. Today’s landscape is a stark reminder of the varied pace of development and technological uptake across the globe.”
This development, a stark deviation from the 2023 forecast by the IEA, is a wake-up call for energy strategists worldwide. As we grapple with the effects of climate change, this renewed thirst for oil underscores the complex interplay of economic growth, energy demands and environmental sustainability.
As the oil phoenix rises, the question remains: will we witness a “second summit,” or will this anomaly signal fundamental unpredictability in our rapidly evolving world? The answers to these questions will have profound implications for business leaders and policymakers alike.
/ First published on Mindbullets June 15 2023.
Diesel drought drives new oil tech
Innovation comes to the rescue of fuel shortages
Dateline: September 19 2028
In just five years we have gone from an oversupply of fossil fuels to a critical shortage of the one fuel we need for everything ― diesel.
Diesel has been reliably powering trucks, heavy machinery, farming and mining for over a century. Its high energy density and ease of transport have made it the fuel of choice for everything from shipping to the military to backup power generation. For versatility and bang for the buck (or joule for the dollar), it’s hard to beat diesel. And diesel is one of the primary products of oil refineries, so it’s abundant too.
Until now. With climate activism at its peak and banks too nervous to invest in fossil fuels, new oil projects are just holes in the ground and global refinery capacity has slumped. That’s the biggest problem, because even with a glut of crude only about 20% emerges as diesel after the “crack”, and diesel is the one liquid fuel everybody wants.
Sure, there have been attempts to use green ammonia for farm tractors and hydrogen for semi-trucks, but the vast majority of transportation, agriculture and mine equipment still uses diesel. And the minerals and construction for solar and wind farms, as well as batteries for electric cars, all need diesel. With limited supply prices have surged, making technology solutions commercially viable.
First off is a resurgence in gas-to-liquid production. Clean diesel can easily be produced from natural gas and it’s less polluting than diesel from crude. But the plants are too enormous to benefit from economies of scale and can’t be switched on and off to meet demand peaks and troughs. You’re looking at multidecade investments of multibillion-dollar amounts, and then gas is still tarred with a fossil fuel brush.
More exciting are the recent breakthroughs producing complex hydrocarbons from genetically engineered organisms ― microbes and bacteria. Essentially, you feed them effluent and farm waste and the mutant bugs excrete diesel and jet fuel. That also cuts down on methane from rotting garbage, so it’s good for the climate too.
As the world moves to electric cars and solar power we still need fuel for the heavy lifting, and diesel from natural gas and bioreactor plants is so successful it’s being called the “new oil”. / First published on Mindbullets September 21 2023.
• Despite appearances to the contrary, Futureworld cannot and does not predict the future. The Mindbullets scenarios are fictitious and designed purely to explore possible futures, and challenge and stimulate strategic thinking.
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