JOHN DLUDLU | It’s a political problem, Mr President, not a legal one

President Cyril Ramaphosa is blessed with good lawyers but cursed with bad political advisers.

On Friday the Constitutional Court could only unanimously agree that it had jurisdiction to hear the matter brought by Julius Malema’s EFF. All the other decisions were split. Net effect? Parliament needs to set up an impeachment committee over an independent panel’s report on the Phala Phala robbery of dollars at the president’s farm.

In 2022 the ANC used its parliamentary majority to, in effect, discontinue hearings concerning the report by the panel, led by former chief justice Sandile Ngcobo, which concluded the president had a prima facie case to answer.

Ramaphosa’s lawyers, who had sought to challenge the report, abandoned that bid after the ANC stymied it through the vote. On Monday night, Ramaphosa told the country that he would revive the legal challenge. That is his right and a decision probably taken on the advice of his legal advisers.

But this mischaracterises the problem. Ramaphosa’s core problem is political, not legal. It is also a misreading of his party, the ANC. The ANC doesn’t care about the law; it cares about its political calculus.

It fired Thabo Mbeki, one of Ramaphosa’s predecessors, for exercising his legal right to clear his name after a questionable court judgment. The party would rather he hadn’t. He did, but this success came after his ouster from office.

Living with a taint such as Phala Phala would have been a nightmare. Unwisely, Ramaphosa, who seriously considered resigning in 2022, followed the bad advice of his political advisers that their protection was sufficient.

Differently put, by now he would have been armed with the result of his challenge as he prepared to face an impeachment inquiry. Complex court judgments don’t make winning talking points in popular forums, but they matter for posterity and political legacies.

Deep reflection

Friday’s ruling, which dents parliament’s image as the executive’s watchdog, calls for serious meditation. The judges chose the date of the 30^th anniversary of the constitution to deliver the judgment. That, surely, was not a coincidence, and it wouldn’t have been lost on Ramaphosa, who’s credited with leading the constitution’s drafting. But that seems to have been lost to his political court.

In contemplating the various scenarios, the political advisers ought to have imagined one of a full-on impeachment ruling. After all, the EFF, supported by the tiny but principled African Transformation Movement, never asked the court to rule on Ramaphosa’s guilt or otherwise; they merely asked for a ruling on parliament’s conduct.

In one of the worst-case scenarios (impeachment hearing), advisers would have sketched out how one unfolds. Even a child could have told them the opposition would be emboldened, and it was unlikely to end well.

At this point Ramaphosa would have had to change his prayer script. Instead of “Why’s this happening to me?” he would have prayed for “strength to defeat my enemies”.

The political advisers would have warned him to prepare himself for two eventualities. First, a few months of political drama and the humiliation of motions of no confidence, street protests, insults and disruptions of his parliamentary addresses. Those are occupational hazards. Second, and most importantly, his most lethal enemies are within — not outside — his party.

His political home is chronically unreliable as an ally. As if this were an honour, his two immediate predecessors were ousted by the ANC, not the opposition. Having observed this putsch up close, he would have remembered this well.

Mounting woes

Monday’s decision worsens Ramaphosa’s problems. Courts are blunt tools for political battles. Even with top-class lawyers in his corner, the president’s life will be miserable this year. Worse, he can’t really know when (not if) his party will dump him — before or after the local government elections. His is a party of half-yeses and maybes.

The ANC’s stance is significant. Its chair and one of the president’s advisers and enforcers, Gwede Mantashe, could only confirm on Monday that Ramaphosa wouldn’t resign. The latter delivered the same message, looking awkward.

The ANC’s main opposition, the DA, has struggled to speak with one voice about what it plans to do. Sensible political advice isn’t a one-way street. Dented as he is, Ramaphosa still holds some cards, and he hasn’t yet expended all of the political capital he holds.

For example, his political advisers should have asked the ANC for a cast-iron guarantee that he is the party’s man to take it into the next elections, and that he can (still) govern for the country.

• Dludlu, a former Sowetan editor, is CEO of the Small Business Institute.