March and March’s June 30 “deadline” for undocumented foreign nationals to leave South Africa comes just a few days after Bafana Bafana’s June 25 victory over South Korea in the Fifa World Cup.
Politicians are often tempted to exploit national sporting successes for partisan gain. They align themselves with winning teams, attend victory parades and invite champions to their official residences in the hope that they will be engulfed in a positive emotional halo. At the least, they hope a sporting event will disrupt a negative news cycle and offer breathing space amid a crisis.
There are three reasons President Cyril Ramaphosa and other leaders of the government of national unity would be unwise to lean too heavily on this crutch.
The knockout stage starts for South Africa as soon as Sunday. Their opponents, Canada, somewhat surprisingly sit far above them in the Fifa world rankings. When leaders overinvest in national success, draping themselves in the team’s colours, a defeat reflects directly back on them. The political gains from victory tend to be modest and short-lived, while the reputational damage from defeat lingers far longer.
National unity is a part of the problem regarding antiforeigner sentiment. Sport can temporarily transcend ethnic or class divides, but strident signals of national oneness may further undercut sympathy for outsiders.
The political gains from victory tend to be modest and short-lived, while the reputational damage from defeat lingers far longer.
The third reason for moving carefully is that June 30 is just a single day. Deadline-setting is a well-understood move for protest movements such as March and March because it compels governments to either act or be seen to do nothing. The countdown itself generates coverage and the date becomes a focal point for supporters and opponents. If demands are partially met, the movement can claim victory; if they are not, it can try to escalate matters further.
A deadline also facilitates co-ordination between groups that share messaging, synchronise tactics and proclaim common goals, but without the need for a central command structure. When there is no formal central authority there is no-one to hold accountable for the violent actions of participants ― some of whom will be opportunistic actors linked to criminal mafias, extortion rackets that prey on foreign-owned businesses or political parties eying the upcoming local government elections.
Price spikes are triggers
Parties of government would do better to focus on more tractable political issues. Food and fuel price spikes are triggers for unrest everywhere because price shocks hit almost everyone at once and this makes it easier to organise around collective grievances. Governments can do little to ameliorate inflation caused by international crises, but they can work much harder to explain its real origins to citizens.
They also need to counter claims that March and March and related formations are just organic “grassroots” protest movements or legitimate civil society organisations. These groups have rapidly incorporated emotionally charged incidents into antiforeigner mobilisation campaigns. They exhibit consistent branding and message discipline and have shown an ability to co-ordinate and amplify social media activity, all indications that professional “campaign managers” of the Bell Pottinger variety have been deployed. Such professionals and their funders surely can and should be exposed.
Beyond such efforts, the government has little choice but to soldier on. March and March’s organisational capacity for a sustained or repeated national shutdown remains unknown. If June 30 passes without major, uncontained unrest, the movement will lose much of its credibility and its capacity to mobilise in future will be eroded. The political situation that has allowed antiforeigner sentiment to flourish and be manipulated is not going away for the foreseeable future. As for the football, we should all simply enjoy the national team’s run of success for as long as it lasts.
• Butler teaches public policy at the University of Cape Town.
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