South Africans tend to judge their presidents emotionally. Now, more than 30 years into democracy, perhaps it is time to ask a different question: which president has left South Africa stronger than when they assumed office?
For me, the rankings are clear.
1. Thabo Mbeki. Placing Mbeki ahead of Nelson Mandela will be controversial, but he was arguably South Africa’s most effective administrator. From 1999 to 2008 the economy grew by an average of about 4% a year, government debt fell to around 26% of GDP, democratic South Africa recorded its first budget surplus, and the South African Revenue Service (Sars) became one of the world’s most respected tax authorities.
The Treasury earned an international reputation for fiscal discipline, inflation remained under control and the ANC increased its electoral support from 66.3% in 1999 to 69.7% in 2004. Mbeki positioned the country as a continental leader through the African Renaissance, helping establish the AU and the New Partnership for Africa’s Development.
His presidency will always be overshadowed by one catastrophic mistake, though. His HIV/Aids denialism delayed antiretroviral treatment, with researchers estimating more than 300,000 preventable deaths. His policy of quiet diplomacy towards Zimbabwe also failed.
Despite those failures, no democratic president left behind a more capable state or stronger public institutions.
2. Nelson Mandela. Madiba remains South Africa’s most important president. He united a divided nation, secured a peaceful democratic transition and embedded constitutional democracy, restoring South Africa’s place in the world.
But Mandela was a nation-builder more than a state-builder. He served only one term, delegated much of the administration to Mbeki, and left the country’s structural economic challenges largely unresolved.
He built the nation, but Mbeki built the state.
3. Cyril Ramaphosa. Ramaphosa inherited arguably the weakest state since 1994 after almost a decade of state capture. His greatest achievement has been institutional repair.
He allowed the Zondo commission to operate without interference, rebuilt Sars and strengthened the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA). He also liberalised the electricity market, helping reduce load-shedding through greater private investment. Operation Vulindlela has also advanced reforms in energy, ports, rail and telecommunications.
Still, his presidency has been defined as much by caution as reform. Economic growth has remained below 2% and unemployment above 30%, and implementation has often lagged behind ambition. The Phala Phala scandal has dented his anti-corruption credentials.
His greatest achievement has been stabilising a state in decline, but whether history remembers him as a true reformer will depend on whether that stability delivers sustained growth.
4. Kgalema Motlanthe. Motlanthe ranks fourth largely because he served for only a little over eight months. His presidency was calm, constitutional and scandal-free, providing stability after Mbeki’s recall and ensuring a smooth transition to the 2009 election.
Yet his tenure marked the beginning of the Zuma era. By signing legislation replacing the Scorpions with the Hawks, Motlanthe endorsed a change many believe weakened South Africa’s anti-corruption architecture. His presidency became the bridge between Mbeki’s capable state and Zuma’s era of state capture.
Motlanthe’s legacy is one of stability but also missed opportunity.
5. Jacob Zuma. Zuma sits firmly at the bottom. His presidency was defined by state capture, corruption and the systematic weakening of public institutions. The Zondo commission documented how the Gupta family influenced cabinet appointments, procurement and state-owned enterprises.
Eskom, Transnet, SAA, Denel, the NPA and the State Security Agency all emerged significantly weaker. Economic growth fell from more than 4% under Mbeki to around 1.5% under Zuma, government debt climbed from about 27% to almost 50% of GDP, and South Africa suffered successive junk-status credit downgrades.
To be fair, Zuma expanded social grants to more than 17-million beneficiaries, introduced fee-free higher education for poor and working-class students, and oversaw the adoption of the National Development Plan. But those achievements were eclipsed by state capture, estimated to have cost the country hundreds of billions of rand.
More than any other democratic president, Zuma left South Africa weaker than he found it.
No ranking will satisfy everyone, but one thing is clear: Mandela gave South Africa its democracy. Mbeki built its strongest state. Motlanthe preserved it. Zuma broke it. Ramaphosa is trying to rebuild it.
• Roos is Business Day parliamentary reporter.
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