The outlines of an agreement being reached between Iran and Oman to jointly manage traffic through the Strait of Hormuz may lead to the resumption of international shipping through the waterway, easing a choke point for energy shipments to world markets.
It could also have substantial negative implications for something more vital — freedom of navigation through territorial waters and the high seas, a principle that has underpinned global commerce for centuries. The world should be worried.
The agreement, reached between Iran and Oman last week, would involve navigation channels crossing Iranian and Omani waters and a joint co-ordination centre to manage traffic and handle vessels’ data. The arrangement is proposed to be temporary, 60 days, being a means to a more lasting ceasefire and final agreement.
A major sticking point is transit fees, which Iran is insisting on. This is anathema for the regional states and the US. But after five months’ deadlock Iran’s grip over the strait has not loosened and there seems little anyone can do about it. Iranian control is a reality. For good measure, said Iran, agreement will only follow the US lifting sanctions and its blockade of Iranian ports.
A settlement on Iran’s terms sounds bad, but US President Donald Trump may be inclined to accept it as part of a shabby deal that is the best that can be had without further escalation, which would demand considerably greater military force, including ground troops.
The risk of another “forever war” in the Middle East is not something Trump can afford. Cutting his losses and reopening the strait to traffic may serve Trump’s short-term political priorities. But it would also open the way for the collapse of US status as the oceanic power acting as a guarantor of open trade.
Freedom of navigation on the high seas is foundational for international maritime law, the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, which ensures global commerce moves freely without interference from any country. That includes a nonsuspendible right of passage through territorial waters, including global chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz.
The US Navy has historically taken on the responsibility for upholding freedom of navigation as part of the post-World War 2 international order, a role it took over from Great Britain before that, underpinning the rise of unfettered global commerce. Until now.
If the US allows this to be, it will in effect be walking away from the legal principles of international law and a public good that has been its historic mission as a power. It is a dangerous precedent in other ways too — in theory nothing then prevents Indonesia or Morocco from controlling traffic and extracting fees in the straits of Malacca and Gibraltar, respectively.
Insistence on its own control of Hormuz is one of several intransigent positions of an Iranian regime that has emerged from the conflict emboldened and defiant. It thinks it has won, or at least survived, the war and can dictate terms. Its missile programme, nuclear activity and domestic policy are all nonnegotiable, it said.
Notable is that Iran has negotiated the agreement over Hormuz with Oman directly, cutting the US out of negotiations entirely. This is close to being a fait accompli handed to the Americans. Iran also claims that it will not negotiate with the US now, or ever again, on a bilateral basis, only in multilateral forums involving the regional states or mediators.
Such is the cost of Trump tearing up the last, major diplomatic agreement with Iran, the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, in terms of which Iran constrained its nuclear programme voluntarily. Iran no longer trusts the US to uphold agreements, and for good reason.
This goes some way to explaining the odd pattern of negotiations in recent months, with Trump claiming success in talks only to be publicly contradicted by Iranian representatives who say there are no talks with the US or that nothing was actually agreed.
The powerlessness of the US in this situation is remarkable. And it has only itself to blame.
• De Baissac is founder and CEO of resilience advisory firm Eunomix. Mason, an associate of Eunomix, lives in Rosendal, Free State.
Business Day
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