It seems a bit rude to deliver bad news while many of you are still merrily finishing off your leftover Christmas pudding. But it has to be done. It is possible that our country will be more prosperous and stable in 2020 than it was in 2019. It’s possible, but it’s unlikely. What is most likely to happen is that 2020 will be worse than the past year. It will mark the rock bottom of the age of decline that started in 2008.
That’s saying something, because 2019 is a very low bar to measure ourselves against. The momentum of our country’s downward spiral was still going strong in 2019. Few things worked. The economy faltered. Unemployment got worse. Our state-owned enterprises (SOEs) fell like ninepins. State spending remained huge as ministers bought themselves fancy cars or invented new tricks — such as claiming fictional car breakdowns — to milk taxpayers. Municipalities teetered on the brink of collapse. Disgraced politicians were rewarded with parliamentary committee chairs.
With the bar so low, you’d think that the only way is up. You’d be wrong. Expect a ratings downgrade in March if no decisive measures are announced by the government to stop the deterioration of state finances and the decline of the economy. If there’s a downgrade from Moody’s Investors Service, confidence in SA will hit new lows as we enter full junk status.
President Cyril Ramaphosa gives a series of speeches early in the new year, culminating in the state of the nation address on February 13. He can choose to mimic the unhelpful policy stance advocated by his comrade Ace Magashule when he delivers his January 8 speech at the ANC birthday celebrations, or he can be brave and chart a new course for the party and for the country. Will he? Not if his track record over the past two years is anything to go by. He remains committed to unifying the ANC and will bend over backwards to keep Magashule and company in the party tent. If he goes with the ruinous Magashule party line on key policies, the smart money is on a downgrade to junk status.
A few months after the budget speech we will have the ANC’s national general council. It’s going to be hell for Ramaphosa. A few weeks ago, Magashule warned that the party’s “national executive committee wants to send a very clear message that there is no-one who is above the national conference or the national implementation manifesto resolutions”. That barb was aimed at Ramaphosa. Magashule and others are worried about Ramaphosa trying to fix the SOEs and clean out patronage. With the Magashule faction in a tight corner as law enforcement circles, they will try to remove Ramaphosa or hobble his presidency by constraining his ability to implement reforms.
It’s going to be hell for Ramaphosa
For foreign and domestic investors, if they succeed it would be the end of the Ramaphosa period of hope. Expect uncertainty before the meeting and capital flight on steroids if Ramaphosa is hobbled.
Ramaphosa faces some problems of his own making. Why is the new CEO of Eskom walking into the job at the same time as the chief restructuring officer? It now sounds like there will be four head honchos at Eskom. Plus the voluble board chair and the minister of public enterprises. Too many cooks make for a disaster.
Race relations will continue to fray. The likes of the EFF’s Mbuyiseni Ndlozi will continue to seek to divide where there is unity. Our economic disparities along racial lines will fan these flames. Social media will become even more divisive as a terrain for these battles. The DA will trundle on towards obscurity. Social strife will deepen as economic hardship increases. Crime will continue to hold hostage communities suffering from lack of electricity and other services. Protests will rise towards the final months of 2020. Why?
The Ramaphosa presidency moves as fast as a sloth. That means the momentum of bad decisions, policies and practices unleashed since 2008 by his predecessor continues. The consequences of his lethargic implementation of reforms and internecine warfare within the ANC will be continued poor economic growth and low investor confidence. Poor communities will be at the receiving end of this.
Our only hope is that Ramaphosa’s long game pans out and that 2020 is the lowest point of our long-standing problems — and 2021 begins the turnaround he has promised. But there are local government elections in 2021. The ANC won’t be working as it hits the campaign trail to woo voters, who will come out in very small numbers and inevitably give their consent to continue to be misgoverned. I pray that I am proved wrong.
• Malala is a freelance writer based in the US.
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