There is a deep-seated but terribly mistaken belief among many ANC leaders, members and trade unionists that after a wasted decade under former president Jacob Zuma, in which public services, state-owned entities (SOEs) and public finances were plundered, these entities can now be repaired overnight.
Such has been the astonishing scale of state capture that, even if all the ingredients for turnaround success were in place — competent new boards and executives, willing staff and no political interference from ANC leaders — it would still be very difficult to resuscitate beleaguered SOEs, public services and public finances within five years.
Worse, conflict within the ANC over how to manage these institutions, insistence on continued cadre deployment, and populist opposition to restructuring make the task almost impossible.
This of course speaks to the fact that most ANC decisionmakers have little understanding of how business, the economy or institutions function, and have little technical or professional experience outside insular ANC party structures.
Disastrous presidency
Many ANC leaders believe an ability to play ANC factional politics automatically translates into an ability to run complex public or private organisations. Even President Cyril Ramaphosa appears to believe in the possibility of quick turnarounds for entities that have been run into the ground for years. This was borne out when Ramaphosa accepted assurances that the appointment of a new board would enable Eskom to miraculously emerge from a decade of rot in its organisational culture and suddenly operate like a well-oiled machine.
Many current ANC leaders and opposition leaders enthusiastically supported Zuma during his presidency. Many later apologised for this and admitted to misjudgment. What happened during Zuma’s disastrous presidency — with their support — has destroyed the public service, SOEs and public finances to such an extent that under the best circumstances a recovery may take at least five years.
Sadly for many who voted for Zuma, supported him and fell for his charms, the worst fallout from his presidency — job losses, investment flight and lack of growth — is only now being played out, when he is already out of power, and will be playing out for years. There is usually a time lag before the impact, consequences and pain of mismanagement, waste and corruption are felt in the wider economy. SA is now beginning to see the consequences of Zuma’s wasted decade: mounting public debts, the closing of factories and businesses, the total collapse of public services and the decline in public revenues.
SA is now beginning to see the consequences of Zuma’s wasted decade
The wasted decade of Zuma translates into wasted futures for millions, long after his demise. It could play out for even a decade after his departure from the presidency.
It is surprising that Ramaphosa and his strategists have not tried harder to explain to ANC members, whether allies or opponents, that the worst impact of a decade of state capture is still to come, and that the damage cannot be reversed in a year.
This is why it is so important for citizens, party members and civil society to actively oppose corruption, mismanagement and waste as soon as governing leaders and parties begin to backslide. The consequences of bad governance can be felt for years after these leaders and parties have left government.
Unless Ramaphosa forges ahead with a stronger fist, makes the necessary structural reforms, faces off against the populists, ideologues and the ignorant, and prosecutes corrupt ANC leaders — even if this makes him unpopular with some factions — the painful economic, social and growth consequences of Zuma’s presidency will collapse the economy on Ramaphosa’s watch.
The irony will then be that the delayed bad consequences of the Zuma regime may possibly bring down the Ramaphosa presidency.
• Gumede, author of Restless Nation: Making Sense of Troubled Times (Tafelberg), is an associate professor at the Wits School of Governance.
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