The ANC has long indulged in loud, expensive and brutal succession races — fought both within the party and using the state through deployment and patronage.
Jacob Zuma mastered this art, as was clearly displayed in the way he diminished Kgalema Motlanthe’s chances of succeeding him by bringing him onto his slate as deputy president and then allowing him to act as president between the conference and the 2009 election, when Zuma was formally elected head of state.
As a result, Motlanthe’s signature features on the legislation scrapping the Scorpions, the biggest blow to the fight against high-profile crime and corruption and a move that haunts the criminal justice system to this day.
Internally in the ANC, Zuma and his allies took control of deployment and established wide patronage networks to maintain their hold on key party provinces, mainly KwaZulu-Natal, North West, Free State and Mpumalanga.
The power brokering, enabled by weak branches, corrupted local leaders and patronage networks, coupled with avaricious conference delegates, has not diminished — Brown Mogotsi, linked to police minister Senzo Mchunu, is a prime example.
After last year’s election disaster, party political brokers appear to have caught on to the fact that the ANC is on borrowed time — a 17 percentage point decline in electoral support is but a step away from the party occupying the opposition benches in 2029.
Some of these political brokers are more sophisticated and better resourced than Mogotsi. They are often behind-the-scenes players and prefer it that way. An example was Cheslyn Mostert, described by the Mail & Guardian in 2017 as “the mystery man who helped Cyril win at Nasrec”.
Bankable candidate
This time the ANC power brokers are desperately seeking a bankable candidate who can stave off electoral humiliation for the ANC in the 2029 election while at the same time keeping the complex network of patronage throughout the party structures functioning, a near impossible task.
There is a deep sense of anxiety among party leaders and their handlers that time is running out. This is why new names are being added to the mix almost weekly, despite the conference being over two years away: Khumbudzo Ntshavheni, Panyaza Lesufi and Nomvula Mokonyane are some of the names added recently to those already in the running.
Deputy president Paul Mashatile remains the lead contender, but what of the questions over his lifestyle and health? Mchunu, another possible contender, is in effect being kicked out of the race by the various inquiries that are unfolding.
In testimony before parliament’s ad hoc committee into allegations of political interference and corruption in the police, levelled at an explosive press conference by KwaZulu-Natal police commissioner Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi, former police minister Bheki Cele began giving evidence in a jovial mood on Thursday.
He laid bare what sources have been whispering ever since Mkhwanazi’s July 6 presser — that the battles among the most senior leaders of the criminal justice cluster are linked to the ANC’s succession race.
Cele told the committee he had met attempted murder accused and alleged cartel boss Vusumizi “Cat” Matlala at a “high-end” Durban hotel in December. At the meeting Matlala told Cele he had personally met Mchunu, along with Mogotsi, about the “project” of Mchunu becoming the president of the ANC.
In the witness box over the last week was Mchunu, who declared that he had never met Matlala, “not once”. His allies say the allegation by Mkhwanazi is an elaborate plot to draw him into the raging factional battle in the police to limit his chances of ascending.
There may be little point in fighting to the death for the ANC presidency by 2029, since the party remains committed to the depraved form of internal “democracy” which has come to shape its character — and the quality of its leaders.
• Marrian is a Business Day editor at large.
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