The electorate is emerging as a key power broker in the ANC’s succession race.
From 1994 ANC branches have wielded power over who would lead the party and, by extension, the country, its provinces and municipalities. It was not ordinary South African voters who chose Jacob Zuma, but ANC rank-and-file members. Ordinary South Africans chose the party, not the man.
Last year’s election result has fundamentally shifted this state of play. The emergence of Thoko Didiza as an alternative to current deputy president Paul Mashatile is born out of concern over the prospect of further ANC electoral decline after its 17 percentage point drop in support last year.
Didiza, it is argued, would provide a candidate unscathed by allegations of corruption or the whiff of scandal — in contrast to Mashatile, whose lifestyle has raised questions about the source of his wealth for an individual who has been in government since the dawn of democracy.
Didiza would push forward with a reform agenda, whereas Mashatile — it is argued by his opponents — would be too busy defending himself to focus on real change and, importantly, economic growth and transformation.
Another argument is that Mashatile would prefer a coalition with the likes of the EFF and potentially the MK party — as his backers in Gauteng have pushed for — instead of the current government of national unity (GNU) arrangement that includes the DA and IFP.
Yet it is hard to imagine Zuma working hand-in-hand with Mashatile — he was, after all, the only voice of dissent against Zuma during his presidency. From Nkandla to state capture, Gauteng under Mashatile was clearly opposed to everything the Zuma presidency represented.
For instance, there were instructions from the Gauteng leadership in 2014 to avoid distributing T-shirts featuring Zuma’s face. And it was Mashatile who addressed the media in parliament in 2018, announcing that Zuma had been recalled and if he did not resign, he would be voted out in a motion of no confidence.
The ANC can no longer rely on its liberation credentials to win elections. It has to begin delivering on basic services, grow the economy and provide credible leadership.
This may simply be politics to a sophisticated operator such as Mashatile, but Zuma does not forgive or forget — the EFF’s former deputy president, Floyd Shivambu, is still smarting from this.
But while the succession talk is mildly entertaining, it is beginning to acknowledge the elephant in the room: the electorate. The ANC can no longer rely on its liberation credentials to win elections. It has to begin delivering on basic services, grow the economy and provide credible leadership.
Failing to do this means its succession race would become meaningless, because the head of state would ultimately be decided by a coalition government. This is the thread that punctuated discussions at the ANC national general council (NGC) this week.
Business Day canvassed leaders on their preferences in the succession race (old habits), but nearly all concluded that the electorate now holds the real power cards in the party’s leadership race.
A poor performance by the ANC in the upcoming local government election will force the ANC to think outside the box about the candidate it puts forward as its face before the 2029 election.
“A decline next year will force us to say we need a team of leaders who can say what kind of ANC do we have, and what kind of ANC do we need; we need to agree on what the ANC is first, before we decide on who must lead it,” a senior leader told Business Day.
There was much hype about individuals pushing against President Cyril Ramaphosa and the GNU in the run-up to the NGC, but this was mostly hot air. The ANC’s real preoccupation at the NGC is the type of party it is, why it is that way, and how it can change to become the type of party that once again appeals to its most important structure: the electorate.
• Marrian is a Business Day editor-at-large.
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