Last week’s address by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at the World Economic Forum is a wake-up call for South Africa.
There has been much focus on Carney’s articulation of the rupture — not transition — in the rules-based international order. But he made another important point, emphasising the need to reduce the leverage — economic and military — that can enable a country to be coerced by another.
“Building a strong domestic economy should always be every government’s priority. Diversification internationally is not just economic prudence; it is the material foundation of honest foreign policy. Countries earn the right to principled stands by reducing their vulnerability to retaliation,” he said.
That’s an important message for South Africa, a country that is loud in international affairs and claims that its engagements with the rest of the world are guided by its “foundational values and principles, as enshrined in its constitution”.
Carney’s point is that in a world where there has been a rupture in the international rules-based system Canada can no longer rely on the strength of its values. It must also rely on the value of its strength. That talks to its economy and military.
That’s where South Africa falls far short. Its pace of economic growth has for more than a decade been too low to meet the country’s developmental needs. In addition, the human and fiscal capacity of the state — across all three layers (municipal, provincial and national) — has been severely eroded.
The combination of South Africa’s weak economic growth and socioeconomic challenges makes for a weak country that, in Carney’s words, would be vulnerable to retaliation by a superpower using its economic and military power to bring a country in line with its (the superpower’s) worldview.
Politicians have for years been preaching the need to raise the country’s economic growth rate, but their implementation has lacked vigour. In its latest forecast, the IMF pegs South Africa’s economic growth rate at a mere 1.4% this year and 1.5% in 2027.
Such growth rates are barely keeping up with population growth, let alone what the country needs to deal with its socioeconomic challenges and backlogs. These include extremely high unemployment (33% overall, but almost double that rate for young people).
The combination of South Africa’s weak economic growth and socioeconomic challenges makes for a weak country that, in Carney’s words, would be vulnerable to retaliation by a superpower using its economic and military power to bring a country in line with its (the superpower’s) worldview.
On defence, Carney said Canada would double its defence spending by 2030 and would do so “in ways that build our domestic industries”. Here too South Africa is very weak. Investment in its defence has not kept pace with the demands of a changing world order.
Economic and military strength
In addition to the changing world order and the security challenges across the African continent, South Africa has a 3,000km-long coastline, which is “strategically located on one of the world’s most vital shipping lanes”. That quote is from President Cyril Ramaphosa’s speech on the occasion of the 2019 National Armed Forces Day. He added that 96% of South Africa’s exports and imports are carried by sea.
“South Africa’s exclusive economic zone is currently the extent of 1.5-million square kilometres. With such a large ocean jurisdiction, the need for effective maritime protection by our navy has never been greater,” Ramaphosa said, underscoring the critical role of the South African Navy, a role that hasn’t been matched by budget allocations.
In short, what Carney is saying is that a country that wants to engage with the world in terms of its domestic values must build strength — economic and military — or run the risk of being coerced.
• Sikhakhane, a former spokesperson for the finance minister, National Treasury and South African Reserve Bank, is editor of The Conversation Africa. He writes in his personal capacity.
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