The coalition government in KwaZulu-Natal has been in place for 16 months; this alone is an achievement given the outcome of the 2024 general election.
The coalition is now on the rocks after kingmaker the National Freedom Party (with just one seat and fewer than 20,000 votes) moved to collapse the tenuous tie-up between it, the ANC, the IFP and the DA.
It is surprising that it lasted this long — the numbers were breathtakingly close.
Established parties were trounced by newcomer Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto we Sizwe party, which, in its inaugural provincial bid for power, obtained more than 1.5-million votes, or 45%, and 37 seats in the legislature.
It was followed by the IFP, lagging far behind with 15 seats, the ANC with 14 seats, and the DA with 11. The EFF won two seats.
The coalition between the IFP, ANC, DA and NFP holds a wafer-thin majority, which ironically was part of the reason partners trod carefully from the word go — until last Sunday.
NFP leader Ivan Barnes declared that he had lost confidence in Premier Thami Ntuli (IFP), opening a pathway for Zuma’s party to take power.
The NFP was never a reliable player in the coalition, and to make matters worse, it is heavily split among groups hoping to preserve the coalition in KwaZulu-Natal, while Barnes and his supporters favour helping MK ascend.
A change of power into MK’s hands with just the NFP backing it is not a fait accompli either. MK needs the support of one of the other three large parties — the IFP, ANC or the DA.
The DA has completely ruled out ever working with Zuma’s MK, but though informal talks are under way between MK and the ANC and IFP, respectively, in the province their national leaders have not yet entered the fray.
There is weight to the argument that MK should be allowed to lead the province in which it won majority support — a 45% party in the opposition benches means that the choice of the majority of those who cast their vote in the province has been ignored.
Taking over the provincial government would allow voters and coalition partners to assess MK’s prowess in running a government — one with the second-largest budget allocation among the provinces, which stands at R158.8bn for 2025/26.
Critics argue that Zuma’s party is unstable and too closely associated with those at the centre of the state capture project. Still, it did receive the overwhelming majority in the province.
Perhaps once given the opportunity, Zuma’s acclaimed chess-playing skills would come to the fore, and he would ensure that his party delivers to the citizens of the province to prove naysayers wrong ahead of the local elections.
Zuma’s legacy is undoubtedly his repurposing of the state to benefit politically linked criminal cartels, but he remains popular and able to manipulate voters through tribalism, propaganda and blatant lies.
If MK performs poorly at governing provincially, it will diminish its stunning general election debut, potentially inviting a tepid performance in the upcoming local elections. Still, MK has little to lose with the municipal polls just around the corner.
The ANC and the IFP, by contrast, have more than just their cushy government posts to lose should MK ascend provincially, particularly before the local elections. Both are vulnerable to MK across municipalities in the province and particularly in eThekwini, the Durban metro.
The ANC is aware that Zuma with access to state power is virtually unstoppable — even more so without the limits and restraints of a political party.
MK belongs to Zuma, with no internal elections, constitution or mandates — it is run according to his whims and desires. Both parties should think carefully before entering a deal with Zuma’s MK in the province, as their tenuous hold on local councils could also be snatched out from under them.
Technically, MK, with its majority in the legislature, deserves a shot at governing. Politically, for the parties opposing it, Zuma back in the driving seat of power is suicidal.
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.