Leaders of parties in the government of national unity held a heart-warming bosberaad over the weekend at one of Gauteng’s finest tourist attractions, the Cradle of Humankind.
While the optics were on point, the meeting masks the deep fissures in SA’s body politic, both internally in individual parties and between the different parties to the GNU. The meeting was a start but the road ahead will not be easy for SA’s first postdemocratic national coalition government.
The weekend meeting was the first gathering of leaders of all 10 political parties in the GNU convened by President Cyril Ramaphosa — long in the making and long overdue.
It follows the impasse over the budget in February, which included a now-abandoned VAT hike that almost collapsed the coalition and the differences between partners over protocol, which led to the axing of DA deputy minister Andrew Whitfield in June, four months after his unsanctioned trip to the US.
While the images of camaraderie and warm, beaming smiles emerging from the high-level meeting are quaint there are potholes ahead for the fledgling government, which will take more than a one-off heart-to-heart to overcome.
Contentious clearinghouse
First, there is the contentious clearinghouse.
Leaders finally signed off on the terms of reference for the GNU dispute resolution mechanism last week. This task, assigned to deputy president Paul Mashatile, took months to complete and still the process of resolving disputes between partners is flimsy and thin, eventually landing up in the hands of individual leaders of the 10 political parties.
Ramaphosa has proven adept at resolving problems between partners — only when he is paying attention, that is. He has rarely been focused on capacity building in the seventh administration. Instead, his focus has been on steering SA through the political shifts taking place globally. Yet with all the globetrotting and agreement signing, SA has yet to announce a deal with the US, its second-largest trading partner and a pivotal export market for the economy.
Second, intraparty dynamics are set to become increasingly complicated in the medium term. GNU partners are now navigating not just their own internal complexities, but those of their partners too.
Elective conferences
The ANC heads to an elective conference in 2027 at which Ramaphosa will make way for a successor. The race is dominated by Mashatile, but there is deep concern in the party over his image as it seeks to regain electoral support in the 2026 local government election and the 2029 national election. Questions over Mashatile’s lifestyle have blighted his ascent to the country’s top job and ANC insiders opposed to his presidency are frantically on the lookout for an alternative, particularly after former police minister Senzo Mchunu’s ignoble exit from the race due to allegations of political interference in police work, allegedly at the behest of criminal cartels. Now, ANC insiders are scouting for new candidates, with the name of National Assembly speaker Thoko Didiza emerging at a meeting on Sunday.
Who leads the ANC will determine the party’s outlook on the GNU and coalitions beyond the 2029 election. Worse, the ANC-led government practically comes to a halt as factions battle it out ahead of an elective conference, further complicating matters for the GNU.
The DA is also heading to an elective conference in 2026. Leader John Steenhuisen looks set to remain on, but there are fears internally that this would result in the party’s support stagnating in 2026 and beyond.
In the short term it does not help that Ramaphosa and Steenhuisen simply do not “click”, as noted in journalist Mandy Wiener’s book on the GNU. A fresh face at the helm of the DA appears distant, meaning that ties with the ANC are unlikely to defrost soon.
The IFP is also due for an elective conference, touted as an opportunity for younger leaders in the party to ascend, bringing new dynamics to the GNU nationally.
With the three largest parties in the GNU in for internal ructions over the next three years, solid GNU processes and procedures are essential to navigate these complexities. Mashatile’s clearinghouse, in that sense, simply doesn’t cut it.
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