NEWS ANALYSIS: Ramaphosa’s ‘African agenda’ takes central stage at G20

US President Donald Trump’s absence from this week’s G20 summit in Johannesburg could be a blessing in disguise for Africa if SA succeeds in using it to shift the international spotlight to pressing economic issues facing the continent.

News that Trump and his government will not be attending the summit, citing a nonexistent racial persecution of Afrikaners in SA, has mostly overshadowed the buildup to the historic hosting of the gathering on African soil for the first time since the G20 started holding such summits in 2008.

Fears that the withdrawal of the world’s largest economy and its president would downgrade the summit’s international significance, resulting in other prominent heads of state pulling out, seemed to be realised when Argentina’s President Javier Milei decided to stay away “in line with Washington’s position”.

This was further compounded by the announcement that Xi Jinping, president of one of SA’s closest international allies – China – had also decided to skip the summit and will send Premier Li Qiang instead.

Read: EDITORIAL: Inclusive G20 will rescue its credibility

But, as the gathering draws nearer, such fears appear unfounded as only four member countries – the US, Argentina, Mexico and Russia - will not be represented by their heads of state and government.

The presence of Li, widely regarded as Xi’s successor, demonstrates the seriousness with which China regards the gathering and is in line with what has happened in other international platforms where the premier, instead of Xi, represented Beijing.

As international relations minister Ronald Lamola pointed out at a press conference on Monday, Argentina, Mexico and Russia, whose President Vladimir Putin cannot travel to SA due to an International Criminal Court arrest warrant, will be represented at senior ministerial levels.

“No, we don’t see this [the absence of some world leaders] as a snub or the undermining of Africa. In all international platforms, it happens that heads of state are unable to attend … it is not abnormal,” Lamola said.

As the country next in line to assume the G20 presidency when SA’s term expires at the end of the summit, it would have been ideal for Trump and his government to be present for the handover.

However SA authorities must be secretly relieved that, with Trump absent, the gathering will not be overshadowed by the political drama and showmanship that often accompanies the US president.

They would not have wanted the summit’s agenda to play second fiddle to the late pedophile Jeffrey Epstein’s files and what they allegedly reveal about what Trump knew about his crimes when they were still close friends.

It being the first time that the summit is held in Africa, President Cyril Ramaphosa and his government are eager that the gathering, which will be attended by several African leaders as guests, yields tangible results for the continent.

We are forging ahead to persuade the countries that are present that we must adopt the leaders’ declaration because the institution cannot be bogged down by someone who is absent.
— Ronald Lamola, international relations minister

The four flagship priorities that SA has set for its G20 presidency — strengthening disaster resilience; tackling the crippling debt burden on poor countries; mobilising finance for just energy transition and harnessing Africa’s critical mineral — aim to put the continent at the centre of the global agenda.

For Ramaphosa, the summit is probably the last major global leaders’ gathering he will host and the president will be eager that its historical significance goes far beyond the fact that it took place in Africa for the first time.

Hence the push, despite resistance from the US and some of its allies, for the gathering not to break with the tradition of issuing a G20 leaders’ declaration at the end of the summit on Sunday.

The declaration usually encapsulates the collective views of G20 members and sets the agenda for future international co-operation. It is often reached by consensus.

Read: EDITORIAL: G20 absence of the US is unwanted noise

But the US has now made it clear it opposes the issuance of such a declaration without its presence and is lobbying for a watered-down “chair’s statement”, which will not be as binding to member countries.

Lamola, however, seems convinced they can still persuade the other countries to proceed with the declaration despite misgivings among some about the wisdom of doing so when they clearly do not have the consensus of all member countries.

“We are forging ahead to persuade the countries that are present that we must adopt the leaders’ declaration because the institution cannot be bogged down by someone who is absent,” Lamola said.

At the heart of the US’s opposition is the Trump administration’s hostility to the ambitious developmental agenda favoured by countries such as SA and Brazil.

Whether the Johannesburg summit ends with a declaration or not on Sunday, its success in the long run will be determined by whether the issues SA advocated for during its G20 presidency remain on the global agenda even after its tenure.

The summit’s legacy, and by extension that of Ramaphosa, will have to be that of ensuring that economic development in low-income countries, most of which are on the African continent, is not throttled by unsustainable debt repayment terms.