The Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) says it will be ready to roll out the next municipal ballot in November 2026, with analysts adding that the month is best placed to arrest declining voter turnout.
“It is possible between November 2 and January 31,” the IEC chief electoral officer Sy Mamabolo said in an interview with Business Day.
He added that the only impediment to a November local government ballot was that the Municipal Demarcations Board (MDB) had not finalised ward boundaries in KwaZulu-Natal.
“The challenge at the moment is that MDB has not finalised wards in KZN due to court challenges. The IEC hopes that these will be resolved imminently,” Mamabolo said.
The IEC says there are 540 registered parties, with almost 100 new parties.
A key concern in recent votes is declining voter turnout. A little more than 12-million of the 26-million registered voters made their mark in the 2021 local government elections, setting a record low 45.86% turnout. The tumbling numbers degrade public confidence in the result and undermine political stability.
“Of the three months, November would be the best, as it is before the year end and the holiday season. Participation is likely to be highest in this month, especially before mid-November,” electoral analyst Wayne Sussman said.
He added that a November vote would also make the most sense in terms of South Africa’s political and economic calendar.
“The election is likely to take place between November and the end of January 2027. To be frank, with school and university exams, people going home for the festive season, manufacturing shutdowns, holidays and people moving in January to start afresh, these three months are the least ideal for a fair election date,” Sussman added.
Electoral analyst Paul Berkowitz reiterated that a January election would be a bad idea.
“Political parties would lose campaign momentum and hate that, plus they would have to engage voters who are Janu-worrying. The holiday break is also bad for IEC planning and capacity. Basically, mid-Dec to mid-Jan is when the country grinds to a halt,” Berkowitz said.
Political parties across the spectrum are positioning for a contest that will test local governance performance, coalition resilience, and the governing credibility of major political players.
The municipal elections, the date of which is to be decided by co-operative governance and traditional affairs minister Velenkosini Hlabisa, are set to dominate the political calendar this year.
While the vote is still far off, the contest for control of municipalities, which manage basic services such as water, electricity and sanitation, will dominate the strategy of political parties, parliamentary behaviour and intergovernmental relations throughout 2026.
For the ANC, which was bruised by the 2024 national election, which forced it into a government of national unity, the local polls represent a referendum on performance and a staging ground for its 2027 internal elective conference.
Business Day
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