The results of the 2026 local government elections will for the first time provide empirical evidence whether the century-old tripartite alliance — grouping the ANC, SACP and Cosatu — still carries its purported heft.
The SACP, which resolved in December 2024 to run its candidates after the ANC joined a coalition with the DA, is fielding separate contenders in multiple municipalities for the local elections that are scheduled to be held between November 2 this year and February 1 2027.
Historically, the SACP has provided ideological and institutional support to the ANC, and since 1994 it has directed its members to vote for the governing party. The split ends an alliance that predates the 1994 elections and raises a question that has never delivered a clear answer: how many votes did the SACP actually deliver to the ANC?
The two parties have shared branches, ward structures and membership rolls for so long that separating their contributions is not straightforward. What the data does show is that the ANC shed roughly 5-million votes between 2014 and 2024 (from 11.4-million to 6.4-million) while the alliance remained nominally intact.
The SACP campaigned for the ANC in every election during that period, including in 2024, when general secretary Solly Mapaila confirmed the party had mobilised across the length and breadth of the country on the ANC’s behalf.
Stuck in the middle
Cosatu, the third member of the alliance, is yet to make a definitive decision regarding its stance on the SACP-ANC split. Matthew Parks, the labour federation’s parliamentary co-ordinator, says the state of the alliance is a concern, especially in light of the 2024 general election, where the ANC lost its parliamentary majority, forcing it to coalesce with other parties at national level.
“We are engaging workers and members on this matter as we head towards our September congress, where we review all Cosatu resolutions. This is a matter our unions are engaging workers on in preparation for the congress,” Parks said.
“Cosatu’s central committee mandated its leadership in September 2025 to engage the ANC and the SACP on matters that have frustrated workers, including government’s economic policies, budget cuts, slow economic growth and high unemployment.”
Political analyst Wayne Sussman notes that while the ANC has weathered breakaway parties in every election since 1999, this split is different because the party is at its most vulnerable yet and stands to lose a significant number of passionate activists to the SACP.
Groundwork laid
The precedent set at the special by-elections in Metsimaholo (formerly Sasolburg) in 2017, where the SACP won three council seats in its first independent contest, suggests the party can translate organisation into results.
More recently, the ANC’s dismal performance in Limpopo by-elections points to a base that is already eroding even before the SACP has formally entered the race nationally.
The ANC has given dual members 10 days from Thursday to declare which party they will campaign for, a directive that places several senior figures in an uncomfortable position.
Mineral and petroleum resources minister Gwede Mantashe, higher education minister Buti Manamela and deputy finance minister David Masondo are among those who are members of the ANC and the SACP and must now choose sides. The ANC’s position is grounded in a rule of its constitution that prohibits members campaigning for another political party.
For Mantashe, the question appears to have been settled already; speaking to reporters at the ANC’s national general council last year, he said he would remain an ANC member if forced to choose. That declaration carries weight because Mantashe is the ANC’s national chair, and he served on the SACP’s central executive committee before being removed for missing too many meetings.
Mantashe’s answer might also signal the prevailing sentiment among the alliance’s senior cadres as the 10-day deadline approaches.
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