JUSTIN MCCARTHY: Is this the source of Zuma's fear?

Countless views have been expressed about Zuma’s motives for his latest round of Cabinet shuffles, none of which fully explain just what drove him to such levels of depravity. With each passing year, more and more ministers unqualified and unfit for their positions are appointed. This is nothing new. But the latest round is so ridiculous and smacks of such desperation that it is clear Zuma himself might just be a dead man walking.

Pravin Gordhan was a dead man walking the day he was reappointed following the forced and urgent removal of that memorable weekend special, Des van Rooyen. Zuma miscalculated badly, and it’s taken him fifteen months to wrestle back control of Treasury. Everybody knows why this happened. Everyone knows that Gordhan, Mcebisi Jonas and team stood firmly in the way of several pet presidential projects: recapitalising crippled SOEs, approval of the nuclear deal, and approval of the Vardospan/Habib banking license so that his Gupta masters can continue to do business. But these go only part way to explaining the latest lunatic lunge.

Everyone knows he’s stacking Cabinet with more lackeys, that he’s playing chess in the build-up to the party elections. It’s now a matter of public record how he exacted revenge on colleagues by reshuffling his reshuffle, allegedly for leaking information out of school. There are also rumours he’s seriously contemplating running for a third term. Speculation is he may have a better chance of re-election than his ex-wife has. As roundly as this is dismissed, first ask yourself if you’d bet against this possibility? From a man who’s so thoroughly demonstrated he will stop at nothing.

Half of the ANC super elite in the form of Mantashe, Ramaphosa and Mkhize, took the unprecedented step of speaking out. Anyone with a basic understanding of ANC culture will know this is momentous. To inflame matters, Baleke Mbete couldn’t resist throwing shade their way, which only served to reveal the intensity of the battle, and how personal it’s become. For the first time since taking power, the ANC can simply no longer even pretend to be unified.

The markets reacted as expected, with the ZAR taking some early pressure but recovering about a third of its losses. It was mild in comparison to Nenegate because markets punish uncertainty, and this move had long been priced in. Yesterday’s inevitable Standard & Poor’s junk status downgrade was pointed: “In our opinion, the executive changes initiated by President Zuma have put at risk financial growth outcomes”. Smack. “The negative outlook reflects our view that political risks will remain elevated this year, and that policy shifts are likely…”. Smack. What policy shifts might they be anticipating now that a ministry with a solid track record of unyielding principles has been decapitated? That, dear reader, is called a smoking gun.

So, the question remains, and there are only three possible reasons for such lunacy - for the President to sell out not only the country and the people but the mighty ANC itself. The first consideration is money. Zuma’s dished out promises and largesse all along his senior political career. But he really doesn’t need more money. Between whatever he’s stashed abroad and his lifelong state benefits, he and his hefty family entourage are secure in comfort way past his lifespan. The Guptas may well have been the vehicle through which he enriched himself, but he’s no longer financially beholden to them. Those commitments have long been transparent.

Then there’s legacy. Powermongers often resort to desperate measures in an attempt to secure theirs. Castro, Amin, Sese Seko and Gadaffi being some. But Zuma has no legacy. Like Mugabe, whatever he may have once had has been sacrificed at the altar of survival and greed. It has long been evident that Zuma will go down in history as an out and out traitor to cause, country, people and party. His legacy is already that of treason.

The third consideration is fear. Fear is a far more persuasive emotion than power, greed or fame. There is nothing logical to fear from of his puppet masters, the Guptas. There is no genuine fear of jail time over his 783 corruption charges. He has too much control to fear that, and the ANC would never jail a president, current or past. There has to be another master, one that to date has reaped no reward from deals cut over chilled vodka. Enter Vladimir Putin, a power broker of the highest Mafiosi order. Look no further than the Rosatom deal, agreed in person not by Tina Joemat-Pettersson, but between Zuma, Putin and Russian Prime Minister Medvedev directly. Rosatom is a state entity – its complete name being Rosatom State Energy Corporation. It’s head until October 2016 was Sergey Kirienko, who prior to that served as Prime Minister in Boris Yeltsin’s cabinet. Rosatom reports directly to the Kremlin. Connect the dots. Follow the money.

Zuma is familiar with Russian culture, politics and of the oligarchies that emerged after the collapse of the Soviet empire. Ex KGB operatives strike fear into the hearts of men more than any other. They are resourceful and utterly ruthless. Deliver or die. Putin was a KGB lifer before entering politics, on the second day of the infamous August Putsch – the failed communist coup d’état intended to remove Gorbachev. He is not a man to cut a deal with only to come up short with excuses.

Thus we have a new energy minister in Mmamaloko Kubayi, whose only known public achievement was to paint her nails during a parliamentary portfolio committee meeting that quashed then Public Protector Thuli Madonsela’s Nkandla report. No prize for guessing which way she voted on that motion. Her qualifications to run this vital ministry? According to the People’s Assembly, a BA degree from Vista University in 2000 and a diploma in project management from Damelin in 2002. 

Academic qualifications and real world sector experience have never been important considerations to Zuma because he doesn’t and never has cared. He cares only for loyalty and patronage. He hires and fires in accordance with the demands of the day. To paraphrase political commentator Justice Malala, he treats ministers like condoms: when he’s finished, he discards them for new ones.

Zuma can’t afford another misstep with the Russians, another fifteen month weekend special. The deal is done but has faltered inside the corridors of government. It’s behind schedule. Delays mean uncertainty. Just like the markets, uncertainty makes KGB trained men nervous. And nobody likes a jumpy professional killer with his finger on the trigger of a firearm aimed at their chest, do they?