RAY HARTLEY: What Zuma's surprise shuffle says about the ANC's succession battle

Is president Jacob Zuma abandoning his support for Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma as his successor?

Zuma announced changes to six cabinet portfolios in a surprise announcement on Tuesday morning.

This followed growing speculation that he would appoint Dlamini-Zuma to the cabinet to give her access to travel and logistical resources that would improve her ability to campaign for the ANC presidency which will be decided in December.

Dlamini-Zuma appeared to be going through the hoops, rejoining parliament as an MP, which is necessary if you are to be appointed to cabinet.

But Zuma left her out altogether, choosing instead to elevate other loyal supporters to more senior portfolios.

It has to be said that it is at the very least awkward that Dlamini-Zuma, a former International Relations minister and a leading contender for the ANC presidency, is a mere back-bencher in Zuma's eyes.

Zuma did get rid of Blade Nzimande as minister of higher education, replacing him with Professor Hlengiwe Mkhize.

Nzimande, the leader of the SACP, has been a vocal critics of Zuma and state capture, openly calling on him to quit.

A brief statement by Zuma read:

“After careful consideration, I have decided to make the following changes to the National Executive;

Professor Hlengiwe Mkhize is the Minister of Higher Education and Training

Ms Ayanda Dlodlo is the Minister of Home Affairs

Ms Mmamaloko Kubayi is the Minister of Communications

Mr David Mahlobo is the Minister of Energy

Adv. Bongani Thomas Bongo is the Minister of State Security

Mr Buti Manamela is the Deputy Minister of Higher Education and Training.”

Zuma appointed loyal lieutenant, intelligence minister David Mahlobo, to the energy portfolio.

Surprising? Not really.

The Sunday Times carried this report recently:

South Africa’s "new Guptas" — former jailbirds Gayton McKenzie and Kenny Kunene — are being lined up to be BEE partners in a multibillion-rand gas deal.

The pair, said to enjoy a cosy relationship with President Jacob Zuma, travelled to Russia three weeks ago to sell themselves to Russian company Rosgeo as possible BEE partners in the R5-billion deal.

With them on the plane to Russia were State Security Minister David Mahlobo and two senior Central Energy Fund officials.

During a stopover in Dubai, McKenzie and Kunene had coffee with the CEF officials while Mahlobo was said to have introduced the pair to Rosgeo CEO Roman Panov.

There you go. Looks like the 'new Guptas' will have a friend in a very high place. Thanks to Qaanitah Hunter for pointing this out:

So why did Zuma not appoint Dlamini-Zuma as was widely expected?

The answer may be that her campaign is faltering in the face of very stiff competition from deputy president Cyril Ramaphosa.

But there may be a more intriguing reason: the emergence of Zweli Mkhize as a ‘compromise candidate’. Perhaps Zuma believes that Mkhize – once a loyal supporter from KwaZulu-Natal – is a compromise he is prepared to make.

Unlike Dlamini-Zuma, Mkhize has cautiously distanced himself from Zuma, but he has been at pains to stay within the broad tent, muting his criticism and keeping it at a general ‘anti-state capture’ level.

Here's a video explaining the moves: