ROI measurements should not be linear

In a fragmented, hyperconnected world, marketers must measure more than short-term returns — they must build brands that earn trust, relevance and loyalty

Picture: ISTOCK
Picture: ISTOCK

Marketing’s obsession with  return on investment (ROI) has created a dangerous illusion: that effectiveness can be captured in a single number. In a world where media is fragmented and consumer attention is fleeting, the real question is not “What did we get back?” but “What will last?”

In South Africa this challenge is magnified. Our consumers are multilingual, multiplatform and culturally diverse. A single shopper might encounter a brand via a TikTok trend, a township mural, a WhatsApp voice note and a supermarket shelf, all within a week. The customer journey is not linear, and neither should our measure of ROI be.

Having spent over two decades building some of South Africa’s most recognised consumer brands, I’ve seen the temptation of short-term spikes. The campaign delivers and the sales chart rises, but if that moment isn’t anchored in relevance, trust and consistent brand meaning, its effect fades.

At Nestlé South Africa, we’ve been intentional about broadening how we define marketing effectiveness. We still track the hard metrics (sales, conversion rates, platform-driven behaviour and digital performance) but we place equal weight on brand equity metrics (brand salience, cultural relevance and consumer trust). This mirrors Nestlé’s global commitment to increasing marketing investment in creativity and meaningful engagement, while staying rigorously accountable.

ROI is already future-fit at Nestlé. We use an unbundled, tool-enabled approach that looks beyond short-term return to include consumer trust, cultural relevance and long-term brand equity. This translates into three strategic shifts in how we approach marketing investment.

First, we balance performance with brand building, aiming for a 60/40 split in foundation/ fire campaigns. Foundation aims to strengthen brand equity and is designed to deepen emotional connection or cultural resonance. Fire is a data-driven marketing principle, delivering immediate action for quick results, efficiently supporting each other.

By redefining ROI as a strategic tool, marketing leaders can justify investing in creativity, community and culture, supporting lasting growth

Second, we connect metrics to meaning. Using tools such as marketing mix modelling and first-party data analytics, we look beyond the click to understand why consumers respond, not just whether they did. The insight is richer and the actions more precise.

Last, we design for cultural truth. Campaigns that authentically reflect South African realities — through language, community engagement or local storytelling rooted in local moments — consistently outperform generic approaches. Being “on trend” with younger audiences and aligning with their passion points and interests boosts resonance. Relevance isn’t a nice-to-have; it’s a multiplier of return.

Traditional ROI measures often overlook brand love, cultural trust and long-term loyalty, which are all crucial in today's fast-paced market. Focusing only on short-term gains risks creating brands that are noticed but not valued.

By redefining ROI as a strategic tool, marketing leaders can justify investing in creativity, community and culture, supporting lasting growth. This approach empowers chief marketing officers to make decisions that build enduring brand value rather than just quick wins. Ultimately, it’s all a balancing act.

At Nestlé, this approach is shaping how we show up in people’s lives, from initiatives that support school nutrition to sustainability-driven packaging changes. These aren’t “campaign moments”; they are commitments that signal who we are and why we matter, reinforcing our brand promise in ways that drive both trust and commercial return.

The next era of marketing effectiveness will be defined by leaders who can unite the art and science of marketing; blending creativity with commercial rigour and cultural relevance with measurable effect.

ROI and the story behind the numbers matters. But the deeper value is in how we interpret and use the data, insights and patterns to enable marketing excellence.

Dudu Mokholo is the consumer communication & marketing excellence director at Nestlé South Africa.

The big take-out: The next era of marketing effectiveness will be defined by leaders who can unite the art and science of marketing; blending creativity with commercial rigour and cultural relevance with measurable impact.

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