Sydney - If South Africa are to claim a third straight World Cup and a fifth overall, they are likely to have to get through a blockbuster quarterfinal against second-ranked New Zealand after Wednesday’s draw for the expanded 24-team tournament.
The new format robbed the draw of much of its pool-stage jeopardy, and there will be few big clashes early on, barring hosts Australia taking on the All Blacks in a probable tournament opener — the first meeting between the neighbours in the pool stage.
However, the introduction of a round of 16 means pool winners can face each other in the quarterfinals for the first time.
The Springboks will face Italy, Georgia and Romania in Pool B, while three-time champions New Zealand will play Chile and debutants Hong Kong in addition to the Wallabies in Pool A.
If, as expected, they top those groups and beat third-placed teams from other pools in the round of 16, the southern hemisphere giants will clash for a spot in the semifinals in a rematch of the 2023 final.
There was widespread criticism of the draw at that tournament, which was made three years earlier and ended up with the top four in the world meeting in two quarterfinals.
This time the draw has been made two years out, but it has been designed so that pool winners who get “easier” round of 16 games then have tougher quarterfinals. If results were to go according to current rankings, the other quarterfinals would feature Australia against England, Ireland against Argentina and France against Fiji.
However, former New Zealand flyhalf Dan Carter cautioned against such expectations. “World Cups are different,” he said. “There’s different expectations and pressures. Things happen in World Cups that you can’t even imagine, whether it’s peripheral decisions or cards or injuries, you just don’t know.”
Australia were offered a relatively smooth path to the business end of the tournament despite failing to get into the top six seeds after winning only five of 15 Tests this year.
The format, changed for the first time since Australia last hosted the tournament, in 2003, allows four third-placed teams from the six groups to progress to the round of 16.
That not only significantly decreases the chance of Australia repeating their humiliating pool stage exit from the 2023 World Cup; it also means that if they finish second in the pool they would play the second-placed finishers in Pool E in their first knockout match.
If the current rankings hold, that would mean a clash with Eddie Jones’s Japan before a quarterfinal against England.
Ireland will face familiar foes in Scotland — whom they have beaten 11 times in a row — along with Uruguay and Portugal in Pool D. Irish hopes of finally breaking their quarterfinal curse would mean facing a potentially stiff challenge in the face of Argentina in the last eight.
The Pumas will play Fiji, Spain and Canada in Pool C.
Three-time finalists France have a dream draw. They will take on the US, Samoa and Japan in Pool E, followed by a winnable last 16 clash against Scotland, a likely quarterfinal against Fiji and then a semi against New Zealand or South Africa.
The tournament will take place in seven cities around Australia from October 1 to November 13, 2027.
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