The announcement that Baltimore will host the final fixture of the Greatest Rivalry series is a reminder of how financial imperatives can defy common sense. It also explains why the Springboks will start as strong favourites — and why, in the longer term, the All Blacks may benefit.
A few years ago, the idea of a potentially decisive Test between South Africa and New Zealand being played in the US would have been considered absurd. It still should be. If the motive is to chase revenue, why not stage the match as a standalone exhibition at another time?
If they want to play in Baltimore, why not do what they did before the 2023 World Cup at Twickenham rather than make it part of a series mostly played in South Africa? It just doesn’t make sense.
As it stands, the Boks and All Blacks will be playing each other in Cape Town and twice in Joburg, with one game at the FNB Stadium and one at Ellis Park. If there has to be a fourth fixture, then give Durban, Gqeberha or Bloemfontein a chance to host a game.
Not that four intense Test matches in the space of as many Saturdays is particularly clever either. Until the British & Irish Lions tour to South Africa in 1980, four-game series were the norm when it came to the Lions, South Africa and New Zealand, but there was usually a two-week break between games, with the touring side playing a provincial side on the Saturday between Test matches.
That was even the case in the three-game series in New Zealand in 1994, which I covered. Some provincial sides set up for the games like they were Test matches, but it wasn’t the same as playing a proper international game with the series at stake. The touring team could experiment with their selection in a non-international.
That extra flight to an additional extra country when they’ve already been away from home for a length of time will disadvantage the All Blacks in the sense that at least their opponents would have been at home during the series.
But the 1997 three-Test series against the Lions saw the international games played out over consecutive Saturdays, as was the case the year before that when the All Blacks were here and scored their first and so far only series win in this country.
My memory of that series is why I think the Boks are such strong favourites to win this year’s series. While the All Blacks deservedly won in 1996, they were clearly out on their feet by the time they got to Ellis Park for the final dead rubber match. There had in fact been four South Africa/New Zealand Tests on consecutive Saturdays, because the two teams had met in Cape Town in that season’s final Tri-Nations game the week before the official series started.
The international level of the sport is more physical now than it was then, and four games in four weeks, with the final one being preceded by a flight across many time zones, is just too much. That extra flight to an additional extra country when they’ve already been away from home for a length of time will disadvantage the All Blacks in the sense that at least their opponents would have been at home during the series.
What also disadvantages the All Blacks is that four games in four weeks will make it almost impossible for either side to go full strength in every match, which favours South Africa because, thanks to Rassie Erasmus’ selection policy over the past few years, his squad should have more depth.
However, with the 2027 World Cup in mind, there are obvious benefits to the All Blacks derived from being forced to spread the selection net and expose more players to the highest level of competition.
Playing four tough games against the Boks in successive weeks will also be good for the All Blacks (and South Africa) in the sense that it will make the tough three-match knockout sequence at the World Cup look relatively easy by comparison.
Overall, though, four brutal games in four weeks just seems too risky from an attritional viewpoint. It should be a three-game series, with Baltimore being a separate event for another time.
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