Ireland’s struggle to overcome Italy in Dublin a week after being thrashed by France in their Six Nations opener has confirmed the decline that the Springboks could have experienced were it not for coach Rassie Erasmus’ determination to be ahead of the transition curve.
Ireland did get home against Italy, but it was a close game, and Italy were pressing for what would have been a deserved share of the spoils when Ireland wing James Lowe intercepted deep in his own half to halt a sustained attack from the visitors in the final minute.
Ireland, who not much more than a year ago topped the world rankings, have dropped to fifth, and there is a stark difference between the team that won 20-13 in Dublin and the one that won 36-0 in Rome 12 months ago.
Ireland are starting a difficult transition, with coach Andy Farrell moving away from experienced but ageing players who have been the core of his team’s previous success and introducing players, mostly from Ulster, who have shown better form this season at club or provincial level than the established internationals in the Leinster lineup.
It will take some doing on Farrell’s part if he gets it right, as he has started the process a bit late for Ireland to be proper contenders at next year’s World Cup in Australia. In terms of transitioning his team, Farrell is a few years behind Erasmus.
It didn’t go well for the Boks when Jacques Nienaber, the head coach who was working with director of rugby Erasmus, changed almost the entire team for a Test against Wales in Bloemfontein in 2022. The Boks had scraped to a win via a last-gasp Damian Willemse penalty in the first game of a three-match series in Pretoria the week before, so it was brave for so many changes to be made.
The Boks didn’t play badly that day, but they didn’t close the game out, and they lost to a late score, leaving the first-choice players to complete the series win in the decider in Cape Town the next week. But since then, and particularly since the start of the new World Cup cycle, Erasmus has spread his selection net with impressive results.
While Farrell has struggled to replace his match-winning flyhalf Johnny Sexton because not enough players got to build international experience while Sexton was still playing, Manie Libbok was introduced as a good alternative to Handré Pollard a year before the most recent World Cup. Thereafter Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu has become South Africa’s first-choice No 10.
Erasmus made a brave call in September 2024 when he chose Feinberg-Mngomezulu, who could count his international caps on one hand, to front the challenge against the All Blacks at Ellis Park, and there were a few other experimental selections, such as Ben-Jason Dixon on the blindside flank, that day. The Boks won, and Feinberg-Mngomezulu played well.
Like Farrell is now, Erasmus faced questions at the beginning of the cycle that he started addressing immediately. It has led to the situation in which the Boks are winning while transitioning.
That thought did not prevent Erasmus from returning to double World Cup winner Pollard in Cape Town a week later. Again, the Boks won the game. Pollard was wearing the No 10 when the Boks lost to the Kiwis in Auckland last year, but the following game provided a seminal moment for Erasmus’ determination to be ahead of the transition.
It was a younger and less experienced team that played the All Blacks in Wellington, with Feinberg-Mngomezulu, Willemse and Canan Moodie wearing 10, 12 and 13, and there was no Eben Etzebeth. It looked like an experimental team, and at the time it looked like a gamble, but the result was a record 43-10 win over New Zealand, and the Boks haven’t looked back since then.
Like Farrell is now, Erasmus faced questions at the beginning of the cycle that he started addressing immediately. It has led to the situation in which the Boks are winning while transitioning.
Ireland have left it late, and lack the depth to pull off the quick fix that Erasmus and Nienaber had when they took over 18 months before the 2019 World Cup triumph in Japan.
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