Beijing — China’s mostly coal-based thermal power generation fell in 2025 for the first time in 10 years, government data showed on Monday, as growing renewable generation met growth in electricity demand even as overall power usage hit a record.
The data is a positive signal for the decarbonisation of China’s power sector as the country sets a course for carbon emissions to peak by 2030. Still, coal output edged up to a record high in 2025
Thermal electricity, generated mostly by coal-fired capacity with a small amount from natural gas, fell 1% in 2025 to 6.29-trillion kilowatt-hours (kWh), according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
Read: SA to add 31-tonnes of coal capacity, says IEA
“The record-level buildout of renewables over recent years has cumulatively impacted the generation mix and squeezed more coal out, coupled with a milder power demand growth of 5% in 2025,” said Peng Chengyao, head of Asia Pacific power and renewables research at S&P Global Energy.
Power demand grew 6.8% year on year in 2024, according to the China Electricity Council.
Still, 2025 growth was enough to tip China’s electricity consumption to a new record high, the National Energy Administration (NEA) announced on Saturday, surpassing 10-trillion kWh for the first time.
Consumption outpaces global regions
That was more than the combined consumption of the EU, Russia, India and Japan in 2024, driven by rapid consumption growth in internet and related services and manufacturing of electric vehicles.
The NEA statistics offer a fuller picture of power use than the NBS data released on Monday, which omits some smaller-scale renewables generation from wind and solar because of the survey’s minimum annual revenue cutoff. The NBS statistics showed power generation reached 9.72-trillion kWh in 2025, up 2.2% from 2024.
The NBS data also showed that hydropower grew at a steady pace, up 4.1% in December and 2.8% for the full year. Nuclear power output rose 3.1% in December and 7.7% in 2025, respectively.
Thermal power generation is unlikely to accelerate in 2026 as renewables growth continues apace, while power demand growth holds steady at 5%, according to S&P’s forecast.
“This trend towards a structural shift in power generation is difficult to reverse,” said Feng Dongbin, vice-GM at Fenwei Digital Information Technology, which operates Chinese coal analytics platform Sxcoal.
Import reliance decreases
At the same time, China’s coal output rose to a record in 2025, NBS data showed, as lower domestic prices prompted buyers to cut imports and rebuild stockpiles with cheaper local supply, though the rise was limited by regulator efforts to curb production growth.
Production in 2025 reached 4.83-billion tonnes, up 1.2% from 2024.
More ample domestic supply — a reversal from the coal and power shortages China experienced a few years ago — also encouraged power plants to source better-quality coal, said Chengyao.
December output, however, was down 1% from a year earlier to 437.03-million tonnes. Monthly output had surged early in the year, but authorities stepped in with curbs on production when the increased output pushed domestic prices too low.
China’s coal production could expand again in 2026, though it will depend on whether regulators continue to crack down on mines producing more than their allotted capacity, according to Dongbin.
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.