Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said on Tuesday they will not allow “one litre of oil” to be shipped from the Middle East if US and Israeli attacks continue, prompting a warning from President Donald Trump that the US will hit Iran much harder if it blocks exports from the vital energy producing region.
The heightened rhetoric did little to quell a sharp retreat in crude prices and a rally in global shares, which came after Trump expressed confidence in a swift end to hostilities even after Iran appointed Mojtaba Khamenei as its new supreme leader in a signal of defiance.
Trump said on Monday the US had inflicted serious damage on Iran’s military and predicted the conflict would end well before the initial four-week time-frame he had laid out, though he has not defined what victory would look like.
Israel said its war aim is to overthrow Iran’s system of clerical rule. US officials mainly said Washington’s aim is to destroy Iran’s missile capabilities and nuclear programme, but Trump has said the war can end only with a compliant Iranian government.
At least 1,332 Iranian civilians have been killed and thousands wounded since the US and Israel launched a barrage of air and missile strikes across Iran at the end of February, according to Iran’s UN ambassador.
Trump warned US attacks could rise sharply if Iran sought to block tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles one-fifth of the world’s oil supply.
“We will hit them so hard that it will not be possible for them or anybody else helping them to ever recover that section of the world,” Trump said at a news conference on Monday.
Iran says it will determine end of war
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps said it would not allow any oil to leave the region if attacks by the US and Israel continue.
“We are the ones who will determine the end of the war,” a spokesperson said, describing Trump’s comments as “nonsense”, according to state media.
In a later Truth Social post, Trump repeated his warning.
“If Iran does anything that stops the flow of oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America 20 times harder than they have been hit thus far,” he said.
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araqchi said Iran was unlikely to resume negotiations with the US, citing what he described as a “bitter experience” with past talks.
“After three rounds of negotiation, the American team in the negotiation said itself we made big progress. Still, they decided to attack us. I don’t think talking to the Americans would be on our agenda,” he said in an interview with PBS.
The war has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, leaving tankers unable to sail for more than a week and forcing producers to halt pumping as storage facilities fill.
Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment on Monday appeared to dash hopes of a swift end to the war, sending oil markets surging and share markets nosediving, before swinging in the other direction when Trump predicted a quick end to the war and reports of a possible ease in sanctions on Russian energy.
After speaking to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump said the US will waive oil-related sanctions on “some countries” to ease the shortage.
According to many sources, that could mean a further easing of sanctions on Russian oil, which could complicate efforts to punish Moscow for its war in Ukraine. Other options include a possible release of oil from strategic reserves or restricting US exports, sources said.
Brent crude futures fell more than 10% on Tuesday after soaring by as much as 29% on Monday to their highest since 2022. Global stock markets also bounced.
The price of gasoline has particular political resonance in the US, where voters cite rising costs as a top concern ahead of the November midterm elections, when Trump’s Republicans will try to keep control of Congress.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Monday found 67% of Americans expect gas prices to rise over the coming months, and only 29% approve of the war.
“They’re horrible,” one Los Angeles driver said of gas prices. “They’re too expensive, they’re high, they’re just so high. Sometimes you have to choose between gas and other things you really need.”
Oil refinery hit
Tehran was choked in black smoke after an oil refinery was hit, an escalation in strikes on Iran’s domestic energy supplies. World Health Organisation chief Tedros Ghebreyesus warned the fire risks contaminating food, water and air.
Türkiye said Nato air defences had shot down a ballistic missile that was fired from Iran and entered Turkish airspace, the second such incident of the war. Iran did not immediately comment on the report.
Israel’s military said it had launched new attacks in central Iran and struck the Lebanese capital Beirut, where Israel has extended its campaign after the Iran-backed militia Hezbollah fired across the border.
In Australia, five Iranian women’s soccer team players were granted humanitarian visas after they sought asylum, fearing persecution in their home nation. Canberra has also promised to send military surveillance aircraft to the Middle East and missiles to the United Arab Emirates to help them defend themselves against attacks from Iran.
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